ES Update

ES and RTY MFI overbought, NQ is not there yet.

So the question now is if RSI hits overbought before it dips or if we get a MFI selloff. Not really sure, but I dumped my GM and PTON calls, because I don't feel like losing money going long on garbage stocks, lol. Grabbed a few COIN puts to offset my PCAR long position. Sticking with that for now, staying light because I expect more whipsaw.

My board is a mixed bag so far, not getting the garbage stock short squeeze I expected.

Trade closed manually:

Well I closed my PCAR position as well, just seeing too much red and not enough traction. Probably more whipsaw this week. Really expected one of those stupid Monday rally because SIVB got bought out.

Keeping my COIN puts though, lol.

Comment:

It's not a good thing to trade on gut feel, but something doesn't look right today. When in doubt stay cash or short garbage.

Looks to me like PTON is going red today, lol. COIN, W, AFRM, AMC, FCEL, BBBY, GME, BYND are all red.

Comment:

Also, AAPL is red, and we know AAPL is the market

Comment:

I read over the weekend that treasury futures didn't match the Dot Plot, I guess bond traders have decided not to bet against the Fed. Yields up across the board, that appears to be pressuring tech.

There's a lot of overlap between NQ and ES, for example AAPL is 14% of NQ and 6.8% of SPY, so ES can't rally without NQ. I've only seen them diverge a few times in the last couple of decades, and only for a few days.

Also, looks like crypto is tanking on Coinbase Wells notice after a lull on Thu/Fri. Oddly, Bitcoin is the only crypto considered a commodity by the SEC, so it's the most likely crypto to survive, but they're throwing the baby out with the bath water, lol.

Comment:

What a strange day. mixed bag across the board, some garbage up some garbage down, small caps and tech diverging but opposite direction as last week.

My picks from Friday are still green, and right about where I dumped them this morning.

FDAX indicators neutral though it was trending up this morning. Still feel bearish though (at least on tech), as yields are rising. Probably more whipsaw tomorrow because that's what the market has been doing for the past 2 weeks, lol. Might be a good time to take a break from the market.

Comment:

All indicators are neutral across the board for ES, NQ, RTY, FDAX. It's a question of if RSI needs to go overbought or if MFI needs to go oversold. Basically a crapshoot for tomorrow, I'm bearish on crypto though.

Comment:

I think bond yields have to stabilize before the market can melt up. Sticking with a few COIN puts for now. Gap direction is about impossible to predict, lol.

Comment:

Closed out my COIN puts, made a few bucks. Not gonna play this "guess the gap direction" game. I might just sit out for a few days, lol.

Remember, EOD direction does not predict gap direction.

Comment:

I'm gonna call this market the bullear trap where it traps both bulls and bears and everyone just sits around yelling at their screen.... "pick a f'ing direction"

LOL.

i think you just have to pick days with a clear direction like last Friday then go big on those days.