Today whipsaw continues, ES made a lower low than yesterday and completed a bullish gartley pattern at 4456.25 only 30 minutes after market open. It then rallied throughout the day and closed around high. Past resistance of 4510~4520 is breached, above that would be 4530~4535, and ideal target of (b) of (B), 4550. If we can hold this momentum, I would expect to see 4550 next, although a marginal high above 4532.5 would satisfy as c of this (b) of (B). Unless ES can directly break above 4600 and even 4620 from here. I still expect we are in (b) of (B), which would turn us down pretty soon. Noted Thursday morning there will be CPI report, which could be a catalyst, so maybe we will have one more up day to go before turning down? My primary expectation would still be that we will see market turn down once again pretty soon, ideally from 4550, but could be from 4580/4600 too.
Again, a break of 4438.5 from here without reaching 4532.5 first would be very bearish and would signal at least (b) of (B) is done, and we are going down to 4350 minimum. And a direct break above 4600~4620 would put us at (C) already. There are lots of possibilities from here, which is the typical B wave behavior. If you are swing trading, please take hedge at key support/resistance or reduce the trade sizing, or simply stay away from market until market is more clear. But if you are scalping, there are tons of possibilities last few days, and I expect there will be more in the coming days.
Again, a break of 4438.5 from here without reaching 4532.5 first would be very bearish and would signal at least (b) of (B) is done, and we are going down to 4350 minimum. And a direct break above 4600~4620 would put us at (C) already. There are lots of possibilities from here, which is the typical B wave behavior. If you are swing trading, please take hedge at key support/resistance or reduce the trade sizing, or simply stay away from market until market is more clear. But if you are scalping, there are tons of possibilities last few days, and I expect there will be more in the coming days.
Comment:
4550 range reached, we will know pretty soon after market open whether it would turn down today, or it would rather hold it till tomorrow.
Comment:
if market decides to drop today, it's now or never...
Otherwise, if we can hold 4500 and especially 4510~4520 range today (resistance in past few days becomes support now), ES can continue higher today into 4580~4600 range, which is the alternative target of c of (b) of (B).