#ES Day Trading Prep Week 9.24-9.29
Levels to Watch -
Resistance : 4378.50 - 74.75 Key Resistance : 4403 - 4392.25
Acceptance in VAL would be needed to regain strength.
Support : 4362.75 - 59.50 - 55 Area maybe ? -
Market is looking for good Support if can't say within/over the Edge then could target a move towards lower Contract Roll Gap with levels to watch on the way for Targets : 4349.50 - 40.75 - 31.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 - 08.50 ?
Depending on how much selling we get if any and if things get real ugly and we can fully fill the lower Contract Gap then we have HTF Key Support at 4291.50-4265.50 spot that started this whole move and a large Cost Basis.
Last Week :
Last week Market opened and held under 4508 - 02 Resistance area which gave us a break of Key Support and VAH which brought in more selling to take out Swing Stops at the mean and hit all of the lower targets down towards 4375.75 - 59.50 Edge. Friday first gave us a hold and push away from the edge back towards VAL but failed to get over the needed area and instead broke and close under/around the Edge low.
This Week :
Market is set to open in an interesting spot and around untested from Contract Roll Gap which started this whole move areas. Longs have been getting trapped higher and higher and Supply have been moving lower for some time now and question this week is Do we have enough Supply or Larger Time Frame Sellers to continue and fill the contract roll gap and maybe even try to get inside Key Support ?
Or do we get enough short covering here to hold the market up Around this Edge/VAL areas to start consolidating to try and get back inside Value ? If Covering is strong enough but Supply will still be coming out then we could also drift lower in tighter range days from here unless selling will be strong enough.
For the Downside :
If Market can't stay inside the Edge and get back over 78.50 - 74.75 Resistance / hold over then we could see more selling. We would need to get under 62.75 - 59.50 to targets 49.50 - 45 Which would be an area to watch for any continuation, if we get through and hold under 49.50 we could see continuation towards 30s - 20s with 4331.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 Being potential area for a hold or bounce on first pushes so would have to be careful around these lower areas as there could be good buying order flow around BUT with the way chart is looking and if we still have volume Supply coming out we could easily keep going since size longs would first want to see market hold before putting together positions and any strength right now could just be size short covering at targets and then continuing to look for buyers. 4308.25 - 4291.50 Is another Spot to watch if we get down there.
For the Upside :
For market to reverse long from here we would have to hold over 4349.50 - 62.75 to test Resistance at 78.50-74.75 Would need to see strength and hold over to target Key Resistance and VAL area which would be the spot to watch for any continuation this week, market would need to accept in VAL to regain strength again, other than that longs might be better from lower potential Supports if they show strength.
If Balance :
We are around a Key Larger Time Frame Area and if selling wont be as strong here and we still have covering/buying then we could see ourself tighten up ranges and maybe even balance in this 4350 - 80 +/- areas until we build up enough to attempt a move towards VAL or continue lower. Need to be careful around here unless we can continue under 59-45 or 80-92
Resistance : 4378.50 - 74.75 Key Resistance : 4403 - 4392.25
Acceptance in VAL would be needed to regain strength.
Support : 4362.75 - 59.50 - 55 Area maybe ? -
Market is looking for good Support if can't say within/over the Edge then could target a move towards lower Contract Roll Gap with levels to watch on the way for Targets : 4349.50 - 40.75 - 31.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 - 08.50 ?
Depending on how much selling we get if any and if things get real ugly and we can fully fill the lower Contract Gap then we have HTF Key Support at 4291.50-4265.50 spot that started this whole move and a large Cost Basis.
Last Week :
Last week Market opened and held under 4508 - 02 Resistance area which gave us a break of Key Support and VAH which brought in more selling to take out Swing Stops at the mean and hit all of the lower targets down towards 4375.75 - 59.50 Edge. Friday first gave us a hold and push away from the edge back towards VAL but failed to get over the needed area and instead broke and close under/around the Edge low.
This Week :
Market is set to open in an interesting spot and around untested from Contract Roll Gap which started this whole move areas. Longs have been getting trapped higher and higher and Supply have been moving lower for some time now and question this week is Do we have enough Supply or Larger Time Frame Sellers to continue and fill the contract roll gap and maybe even try to get inside Key Support ?
Or do we get enough short covering here to hold the market up Around this Edge/VAL areas to start consolidating to try and get back inside Value ? If Covering is strong enough but Supply will still be coming out then we could also drift lower in tighter range days from here unless selling will be strong enough.
For the Downside :
If Market can't stay inside the Edge and get back over 78.50 - 74.75 Resistance / hold over then we could see more selling. We would need to get under 62.75 - 59.50 to targets 49.50 - 45 Which would be an area to watch for any continuation, if we get through and hold under 49.50 we could see continuation towards 30s - 20s with 4331.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 Being potential area for a hold or bounce on first pushes so would have to be careful around these lower areas as there could be good buying order flow around BUT with the way chart is looking and if we still have volume Supply coming out we could easily keep going since size longs would first want to see market hold before putting together positions and any strength right now could just be size short covering at targets and then continuing to look for buyers. 4308.25 - 4291.50 Is another Spot to watch if we get down there.
For the Upside :
For market to reverse long from here we would have to hold over 4349.50 - 62.75 to test Resistance at 78.50-74.75 Would need to see strength and hold over to target Key Resistance and VAL area which would be the spot to watch for any continuation this week, market would need to accept in VAL to regain strength again, other than that longs might be better from lower potential Supports if they show strength.
If Balance :
We are around a Key Larger Time Frame Area and if selling wont be as strong here and we still have covering/buying then we could see ourself tighten up ranges and maybe even balance in this 4350 - 80 +/- areas until we build up enough to attempt a move towards VAL or continue lower. Need to be careful around here unless we can continue under 59-45 or 80-92
Comment:
Balance played out yesterday, Downside playing out today, watch lower targets for continuation.
Comment:
Finding buyers after test of 27.25, if we still have good short covering in these areas we can hold without continuing today so be careful getting too short here unless 27-21 breaks and we can continue from there, Market already made a good move today and this was a potential area for bounce and or support, bounces wont be as strong because we have Supply coming out but while buyers are here its enough to hold over. We could still consolidate 4330-50 area and try to break it later in the day and maybe attempt a run at 4310-08? and if just hold and build up over then maybe we get continuation tomorrow ? We have supply over 4350-60s area and if market start to get back inside and holding over these areas then that would bring stability back and could keep us in this range.
Comment:
Target for the week is hit, this 4308.25 was important area to test which is also front running our HTF Key Support where we would have competing buyers, we might see more size short covering around here which could keep us in tighter ranges maybe? If we do get more selling we could see more continuation towards the lower Support BUT if we don't then we could see some balancing/chop action into the rest of the week as we will clean up for month end after a big move lower, this would be a good area to do it at. Longs who got burned will be trying to make money back and those who didnt trust the move lower over last week will might get burned looking for continuation just because we look very weak here. Unless structure breaks further and shows continuation be careful, Could spend time in this 4310 - 4350 - 60 +/-areas for some time
Comment:
If we still have more volume to come out and fail to get back over 4327-21 and accept to try and stay within 4320-50s area then possible to see continuation towards 4310 area if it we don't hold we have HTF Support at 4291-4265 with possible visit to 50s if we get through. Market would need to hold here and over
Comment:
27 - 21 has been acting as Support all night and we could spend the day cleaning in a tighter range today after already big move, unless 27-21 breaks and we can continue from there I would be careful pushing it today because we still have Supply coming out so buying is not strong for big bounces but might be enough short covering to keep holding us without lower continuation. 4327.25 - 21.50 and 4349.50 - 45.25 are areas to watch
Comment:
Under 4310 we can target lower areas
Comment:
Area under 4291 is HTF Support would need volume for any continuation under, if not can hold.
Comment:
Nice bid today after test of HTF Support area but I wouldn't bet on reversal just yet, So far globex opened around Key area going into tonight, holding under 27-21 can give us another run at HTF Support and maybe test under if enough selling? Market would need to hold over 4310 and get over 4327 and accept for stability/strength to come back or at least start balancing in this 4327-4280s area
Comment:
Market held over 4310 today and once we took out 4321-27 that gave us a push higher BUT if we can't hold over that would trap more buyers from today and if we get under 27-21 we could target 4310 and maybe we head for HTF Support again? Don't forget about 4272-65-52 areas if we do and depending how much selling we still have could dip lower. Market would need to hold 4327-21 and get over 4349 to see more strength but for now supply is above and coming out.