The S&P rejected at the 200 sma last week and we are seeing a continuation of that move on Monday morning. Price is still trading below the downward trend line and is below the LTF 618 Fib. 1st support is at the 21 ema on a further down move. It should be noted that in a hard sell off move technical levels become less relevant and should not be trusted completely. For example the Nasdaq has already cut through the 21 ema over night. Below are a few points I am considering going into this trading week.
• S&P pulled back last week. It had a 104-point range and finished down 1.16%.
• 4200 is my bull/bear line. Currently trading below the bull/bear line
• S&P bias remains Neutral. Will not flip to Bullish unless 4327 is broken. Will not flip bearish unless 4044 is broken
• Jackson Hole Wed -Friday is the key event this week
• Durable Goods, Crude Inventories & GDP data also on tap.
• Market sentiment remains bearish.
• Watch for VIX spike this week. Notable above 24.
• Some highly watched tech names reporting earnings this week like NVDA, NIO, ZM, SNOW, CRM
• Watch 10year yield. A move above 3% could have negative impact on tech/growth stock
• USD has been moving higher. A breakout on the DXY above 109 would be a negative for stocks.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US New Home Sales & Feb’s Kashkari Speaks
Wednesday US Durable goods, EIA Crude Inventories & Jackson Hole starts
Thursday Initial Jobless Claim, US GDP & Jackon Hole cont’
Friday Consumer Spending, University of Mich. Sentiment & Powell speaks
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday PANW, ZM
Tuesday BNS, DKS, SJM, M, INTU, JWN, TOL, URBN
Wednesday RY, ADSK, GES, NVDA, CRM, SNOW, SPLK, WSM
Thursday ANF, COTY, DG, DLTR, NIO, PTON, TD, AFRM, ESTC, FTCH, MRVL, ULTA, VMW
Friday JKS
BULLISH NOTES
200 SMA still in play as price magnet
Potential positive reaction to Jackson Hole
Potential positive reaction to economic dat
Strong bounce of the 21 ema possible
Potential short coving rally if recent high taken out
BEARISH NOTES
Price rejected the downward trend line
Price back below the LTF 618
Potential negative reaction to Jackson Hole
Potential negative reaction to economic data
Spike in yields may spook markets
USD gaining strength once again
Event shock still a risk
Sentiment remains bearish. Heavy PUT buying may push markets lower.
• S&P pulled back last week. It had a 104-point range and finished down 1.16%.
• 4200 is my bull/bear line. Currently trading below the bull/bear line
• S&P bias remains Neutral. Will not flip to Bullish unless 4327 is broken. Will not flip bearish unless 4044 is broken
• Jackson Hole Wed -Friday is the key event this week
• Durable Goods, Crude Inventories & GDP data also on tap.
• Market sentiment remains bearish.
• Watch for VIX spike this week. Notable above 24.
• Some highly watched tech names reporting earnings this week like NVDA, NIO, ZM, SNOW, CRM
• Watch 10year yield. A move above 3% could have negative impact on tech/growth stock
• USD has been moving higher. A breakout on the DXY above 109 would be a negative for stocks.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US New Home Sales & Feb’s Kashkari Speaks
Wednesday US Durable goods, EIA Crude Inventories & Jackson Hole starts
Thursday Initial Jobless Claim, US GDP & Jackon Hole cont’
Friday Consumer Spending, University of Mich. Sentiment & Powell speaks
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday PANW, ZM
Tuesday BNS, DKS, SJM, M, INTU, JWN, TOL, URBN
Wednesday RY, ADSK, GES, NVDA, CRM, SNOW, SPLK, WSM
Thursday ANF, COTY, DG, DLTR, NIO, PTON, TD, AFRM, ESTC, FTCH, MRVL, ULTA, VMW
Friday JKS
BULLISH NOTES
200 SMA still in play as price magnet
Potential positive reaction to Jackson Hole
Potential positive reaction to economic dat
Strong bounce of the 21 ema possible
Potential short coving rally if recent high taken out
BEARISH NOTES
Price rejected the downward trend line
Price back below the LTF 618
Potential negative reaction to Jackson Hole
Potential negative reaction to economic data
Spike in yields may spook markets
USD gaining strength once again
Event shock still a risk
Sentiment remains bearish. Heavy PUT buying may push markets lower.
Comment:
Here is a look on the 4H. Price coming into the 21 ema. This would be very bearish for the overall market if the S&P cannot hold the 21 ema.
Comment:
Price cut through the 21 ema, however, there has been a gap fill in the SPY at about 4125 which may provide some support above the 55 ema.
Comment:
Here is a look at the gap on the SPY.
Comment:
Chopped around yesterday at the bottom of the gap below the 21 ema. Making a move back up now with the 21 ema key resistance. If price breaks through the 21 ema look for it to provide support for bullish continuation. A rejection at the 21 ema would be bearish and lead to re-test of the recent lows.
Comment:
ES similar price action to NAS as different tech. levels. Broke above the 21 ema overnight but rejected at the 9 ema. Now falling back into range. Bullish above the 21 ema, neutral within the box and bearish below the box. May chop until Powell's speech tomorrow.
Comment:
Price reversed yesterday and recovered the 9 and 21 emas. Now pushing higher on softer than expected PCE data. The red arrows point to the level I am watching. JPOW due up at 10am eastern.
