ES/SPY Weekend Levels (Aug29-Sep2)

Here are the levels going into the trading week of Aug 29 to Sept 2nd. Below are a few points I am considering.

• My bias going into this week is now Bearish
• S&P dropped sharply on Friday last week. It had a 173-point range and finished down 4.06%.
• Price has dropped back below the 9/21/55 emas
• Price is back below the Neutral zone. (Below HTF 382 Fib RT)
• 1st support at the LTF 50 Fib RT (3970) & ascending trendline at 3900
• Bears now in control
• Currently in a seasonally weak period of the year.
• Sentiment is very bearish. Bad news treated as bad. Good news treated as not good enough.
• VIX has spiked from below 20 to above 25.
• Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday potential market mover

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Fed’s Brainard speaks
Tuesday Fed’s Barkin speaks, US Consumer confidence & Jolts
Wednesday Euro Zone CPI , Canadian GDP & US EIA Crude inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims & US ISM Manufacturing
Friday US Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls & US Factory orders

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday BIDU , BMO , BBY , CRWD , HPE , HPQ
Wednesday VRA , MDB , NTNX , PSTG , VEEV
Thursday HRL , WB , AVGO , LULU, PD
Friday Nothing Notable

BULLISH NOTES

Oversold conditions
Potential dovish walk back form Fed head speeches
Still above ascending trendline
Hard reversal possible on any positive news
Bond yield may reverse lower and call Powell’s bluff

BEARISH NOTES

Massive down day on Friday
Below 9/21/55 emas
Below HTF 382 Fib RT
Very negative sentiment
Potential liquidity break due to low summer volumes
Potential Put Gamma squeeze
Net long trades may flip Net short
Potential bond yield spike above 3.5 %

Comment:

Most of the time I prefer to use the 55 ema. However, it is clear that the market is reacting to the 50 SMA. Currently price is trading right at the 50 sma so the push down on Friday and pre market was targeting that level. Above it expect a bounce. Below is bearish.

Comment:

Spend yesterday chopping in the bearish flag pattern .Showing weakness this morning. If the recent low fails near the 50 SMA down side targets remain 3970 and 3900.

Comment:

Closing in on the 50% fib at 3970. Next level down would be the 618 Fib at 3900. 3900 also the ascending trend line.

Comment:

Reacting off the 50% Fib exactly. Whether it holds is to be seen. Of note.. Like the Nasdaq the S&P has also completed a compound corrective move into the 50% Fib. I would expect to see a decent bounce here. If the bounce fails quickly it would be a very bearish sign and would expect a move down to at least the 618 Fib and ascending trendline.

Comment:

Small bounce this morning but rejected at the 50 sma. Now retesting yesterday's lows and the 50% Fib. Look for a move down to the 618 Fib and ascending trendline if yesterday's low is broken.

Comment:

Hit the downside target on the break of the 50% Fib. Rallied off the trendline into the close. The rally may have been short covering going into the Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow. Data due out at 830 est time. Strong data may cause the market to sell off. Weak data may cause a rally.