ES/SPY Weekend Look (Sept 6-9)

The S&P finished the week down another 3.3% after a failed attempt to reclaim the 50 SMA . Price now sits at the ascending trendline and is below the 9/21 ema cloud. Key levels to watch this week will be the 50 sma (4024) above and the 618 Fib (3888) below. A break below the 618 Fib would be bearish and may lead to a re-test of the June low. Much of the price action will continue to be affected by inflation data and worries about what the Fed will do regarding interest rates. Worth noting that volume may increase as institutional investors should start returning from their summer vacations and we are starting a new month. Below are a few points I am considering going into this trading week.

• My bias going into this week remains Bearish
• S&P traded in a 107 pt range last week and finished down for the 3rd week in a row (-3.33%)
• Price below 9/21/55 emas
• Price is just above the ascending trendline and the LTF 618 Fib
• Increased odds of a re-test of the June 17th low (3639) if the LTF 618 Fib (3888) is broken.
• Oil price spike on weekend due to OPEC output cut and Gazprom shutdown
• Rejection off the 50 SMA is bearish
• LTF 618 Fib is important support
• Key events this week are PMI data, Canadian rate decision and Powell speaking
• Sept is historically week period for stocks
• Institutional investors return from vacations
• New month officially starts trading.

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday US market closed
Tuesday US ISM PMI
Wednesday US Internationally trade, BOC Rate Decision
Thursday ECB Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims & JPOW speaks + US EIA Crude inventories
Friday Canadian unemployment rate, US Wholesale inventories & Fed’s Evans speaks

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday COUP, GTLB, PATH
Wednesday NIO, AEO, PLAY, GME, YEXT
Thursday BILI, FCEL, DOCU, RH, SWBI, ZS, ZUMZ
Friday KR

BULLISH NOTES

Oversold conditions
PC ratio plus 1 so net long puts = potential reversal
Potential drop in yields
Potential positive news on Ukraine front
Potential positive reaction to PMI & Powell comments
Daily RSI moves back above 40

BEARISH NOTES

Oil price spike over weekend
Below 9/21/50 emas
Potential break below ascending trendline
Potential break below LTF 618 Fib
Potential negative reaction to PMI & Powell comments
Hawkish Canadian rate decision
Increased tensions in Ukraine
Daily RSI drops below 38

Comment:

ES tested the 618 Fib this morning and has bounced sharply. Now above the trendline again. Bullish above trendline bearish below. A break below the 618 would be very bearish.

Comment:

Here is a look on the daily. Parked on the 628 just below the ascending trendline. Market likely waiting on the the Fed. Beige Book out at 2pm est. Above the trendline is bullish. Below the 618 is bearish.

Comment:

Positive reaction to the Beige Book. Bounced off the 618 and reclaimed the ascending trendline. 4000 is the upside target.

Comment:

Upside target hit at 4000. Room to the 50 sma at about 4027.

Comment:

Pushed into the 50 sma and LTF 382 Fib overnight. So right at resistance. Good chance we see a fade off the open. Of note the continuous ES contract I was using on TV has rolled over and is out of sync with my trading platform so I am using ESU2022 for now to chart.

Comment:

Short term targets have been reached. Now above the 382 Fib/ 50 SMA and coming into the downward trendline. Very bullish price actions so far.