S&P rallied off the LTF 618 Fib & the ascending trendline last week and gained 4.10% trading in a range of 209 points. This week will be data heavy with the key CPI data coming out on Tuesday as well as PPI data and Retail Sale on Wednesday & Thursday. Friday is option expiry which will further complicate things. Last week’s move comes off expectation that inflation has peaked, and this week’s CPI data will come in lower tha expected. It is impossible to predict how the market will react. Best to position yourself neutral going into Tuesday. The S&P must stay above 4060 for bullish continuation. If the S&P drops back below 4025 it would be bearish. The zone around 50 SMA & 55 ema remains a key level to watch. Basically, bullish above and bearish below. Below are some points I am considering going into this trading week.
Of note... I will be away the first half of the week so updates will be limited to this post.
• CPI on Tuesday
• PPI on Wednesday
• Ukraine counter offensive can be bullish and bearish depending on Russian reaction
• Key zone to watch = 50SMA / 55ema
• A lot of Fib confluence in the current range. Expect back and forth price action
• Lower trend line break would be very bearish.
• 200 SMA above may act as price magnet
• Potential for a big move in either direction. Position Neutral
• OPEX on Friday.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US CPI, US API Oil reports
Wednesday US PPI, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Retail Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims & US Industrial Production
Friday Un. Michigan Sentiment, Euro Zone CPI & Options Expiry
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ORCL
Tuesday Nothing Notable
Wednesday Nothing Notable
Thursday ADBE
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
Potential positive Ukraine News
Dropping Oil prices
Potential positive reaction to CPI
Bullish momentum if price stays above 9/21/55 emas
200 SMA back in range
Broke short term down trend
Bond yield weaken
BEARISH NOTES
Potential Russian war escalation
Russia may cut off energy to Europe completely
Potential negative reaction to CPI
Negative momentum if price drops back below 5/9/21 emas
Bond yield strengthen
Of note... I will be away the first half of the week so updates will be limited to this post.
• CPI on Tuesday
• PPI on Wednesday
• Ukraine counter offensive can be bullish and bearish depending on Russian reaction
• Key zone to watch = 50SMA / 55ema
• A lot of Fib confluence in the current range. Expect back and forth price action
• Lower trend line break would be very bearish.
• 200 SMA above may act as price magnet
• Potential for a big move in either direction. Position Neutral
• OPEX on Friday.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US CPI, US API Oil reports
Wednesday US PPI, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Retail Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims & US Industrial Production
Friday Un. Michigan Sentiment, Euro Zone CPI & Options Expiry
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ORCL
Tuesday Nothing Notable
Wednesday Nothing Notable
Thursday ADBE
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
Potential positive Ukraine News
Dropping Oil prices
Potential positive reaction to CPI
Bullish momentum if price stays above 9/21/55 emas
200 SMA back in range
Broke short term down trend
Bond yield weaken
BEARISH NOTES
Potential Russian war escalation
Russia may cut off energy to Europe completely
Potential negative reaction to CPI
Negative momentum if price drops back below 5/9/21 emas
Bond yield strengthen
Comment:
Huge sell off after touching the 618 Fib on th CPI print. Consolidation day yesterday. Now flagging above the lower 618. expect chop until the flag is broken. First support is the ascending trendline. Added some fib extensions below. Note the false breakdown zone. Price will need to beak that zone for a deeper flush to the June lows. OPEX this week may make things tricky.
Comment:
Broke from the flag. Got minor support at the ascending trend line then dropped right into the false breakdown zone and bounced. Positive close, but the late day rally was not surprising considering OPEX. Next week should interesting.
