In this analysis, I used several leading indicators - commitment of traders index (CFTS), insiders (Form 4 SEC ) and the greed and fear index (CNN Business).
In commitment of traders index I period 19 - it's a middle of 13 (quarter) and 26 (half year). In practice, it is this period that provides the best results (not only on sp500, but also on other instruments). Historically, the chart shows how well this leading indicator performs.
At the moment, we have not yet seen a direct signal to buy, but the fact is that we receive a signal with a slight delay (a week), and it is quite possible that we are actually already in the buy zone. And it is quite possible that we will still go to the previous volume zone (around 3600).
Next indicator is Insiders data. The chart clearly shows that each increased number of insider buying (more than 150) leads to a subsequent increase of the market. Now the indicator reached 180, so we expect the sp500 index to start growing.
Greed and Fear Index is one of the best leading data. And he also shows just perfect results on history! Current values from 7 to 15 are an indicator of extreme fear, and values below 10 start all the longest trends.
I do not set the levels where the sp500 index will reach, as they will be dictated by the market, and leading indicators will show a reversal. And only there I will close long positions in order to get the maximum profit from the growing trend.
P.S. On the chart, for reasons unknown to me, the arrows for insiders and the fear index moved a little - I hope this will not interfere with understanding the idea.
In commitment of traders index I period 19 - it's a middle of 13 (quarter) and 26 (half year). In practice, it is this period that provides the best results (not only on sp500, but also on other instruments). Historically, the chart shows how well this leading indicator performs.
At the moment, we have not yet seen a direct signal to buy, but the fact is that we receive a signal with a slight delay (a week), and it is quite possible that we are actually already in the buy zone. And it is quite possible that we will still go to the previous volume zone (around 3600).
Next indicator is Insiders data. The chart clearly shows that each increased number of insider buying (more than 150) leads to a subsequent increase of the market. Now the indicator reached 180, so we expect the sp500 index to start growing.
Greed and Fear Index is one of the best leading data. And he also shows just perfect results on history! Current values from 7 to 15 are an indicator of extreme fear, and values below 10 start all the longest trends.
I do not set the levels where the sp500 index will reach, as they will be dictated by the market, and leading indicators will show a reversal. And only there I will close long positions in order to get the maximum profit from the growing trend.
P.S. On the chart, for reasons unknown to me, the arrows for insiders and the fear index moved a little - I hope this will not interfere with understanding the idea.