#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 8.27-9.01
Levels To Watch :
Key Resistance 4445-37 // Current 4422.75-18.75 // 16.50 ?
Target if over 4465-60.25 // 87.25-79.75
Current Support 4478.50-74.75 // Key For Continuation Lower 4362.75-55
Targets if under 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 27.25-21.50
*** 4405.25-4392.25 ? This was previous Key Resistance and 4416-05 is our VAL on 4hr, we closed within it but we don't know if it will act as Support or not, If market cant hold over it then that would be our sign of weakness.
Last Week :
Going into last week 4378-74 was our pinata low for the week to crack in order to see lower prices, as discussed in last Sundays prep IF we do hold over it then that could bring tests of Current Resistance // Key Resistance and if we hold over then that could bring the test of higher stops. We were able to clear all the upper stops and back fill towards our HTF Mean area around 4487-60 but the run up was done after hours/Globex and market just couldn't hold, closer we got to RTH the more selling came in.
End of week we ran out of buying and inventory flushed back under Key Resistance, broke our Pinata Low with volume but buying came in at Current Support for the week which pushed us back over 78-74 and into Resistance. One of the things I noticed is how long it took us to clean up under 4405 to get back inside value, if we trapped size and had strong buyers here would it take us that long to push back inside value?
This Week :
This week we are set to open around our VAL 4416.50-05.25, under Supply that was again trapped over 4420 and close to our bigger Supports.... sounds fun! So where can we head from here?
We had some strong selling Thursday/Friday out of our VAH and Value area but our range Support held the tests and gave us a close back in Key Area. Seems like buying here from last week is just short covering and new longs who aren't strong enough to hold us up over Key Areas just yet with stronger buying coming below 4370s.
For the Downside - IF the Market can't hold over 4416.50 that would signal continued weakness and if 4405.25-92.25 area doesn't act as Support then we could see more selling. If we break and start holding below that it could bring in test of Current Support at 4378.50-74.75 IF we break it again that would give us another chance at lower targets.
4362.75-55 Would be the Key area to hold under during the week, under we could see more weakness towards 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 4327.25-21.50 These areas are close to our HTF Key Support so watch out for buyers at first tests and even possible a stronger bounce? If the market shows. We do have Contract Roll Gap under and we would have to see if we have enough supply to get inside it to maybe make a move towards bigger Support or no?
For the Upside - IF 4405.25-4392.25 can act as Support and Market can hold over it then that could bring in more buyers to get us back over VAL at 4416.50. We would need to get over that and hold over 22.78-18.75 which is a pretty big Current Resistance as we didn't have much buying over it last week. Only holding over that can bring higher prices and give a chance at 4445-37.75 which would be our mean and next Key Area to get through/hold over.
Unless we can do that then I would be careful trying to long unless its from Support areas if they show holds or strong buying from targets if they happen. Possible stronger buying area could be 4431.50-21.50 and under IF we get there.
** We could as well spend time in range under Value between 4420s-4370s-50s without going too much lower as this is still area of buying and unless we hold under/over Key areas then need to be careful. We do have lots of Market moving data this week so hopefully we can get some good trading and wont stay in range.
Key Resistance 4445-37 // Current 4422.75-18.75 // 16.50 ?
Target if over 4465-60.25 // 87.25-79.75
Current Support 4478.50-74.75 // Key For Continuation Lower 4362.75-55
Targets if under 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 27.25-21.50
*** 4405.25-4392.25 ? This was previous Key Resistance and 4416-05 is our VAL on 4hr, we closed within it but we don't know if it will act as Support or not, If market cant hold over it then that would be our sign of weakness.
Last Week :
Going into last week 4378-74 was our pinata low for the week to crack in order to see lower prices, as discussed in last Sundays prep IF we do hold over it then that could bring tests of Current Resistance // Key Resistance and if we hold over then that could bring the test of higher stops. We were able to clear all the upper stops and back fill towards our HTF Mean area around 4487-60 but the run up was done after hours/Globex and market just couldn't hold, closer we got to RTH the more selling came in.
End of week we ran out of buying and inventory flushed back under Key Resistance, broke our Pinata Low with volume but buying came in at Current Support for the week which pushed us back over 78-74 and into Resistance. One of the things I noticed is how long it took us to clean up under 4405 to get back inside value, if we trapped size and had strong buyers here would it take us that long to push back inside value?
This Week :
This week we are set to open around our VAL 4416.50-05.25, under Supply that was again trapped over 4420 and close to our bigger Supports.... sounds fun! So where can we head from here?
We had some strong selling Thursday/Friday out of our VAH and Value area but our range Support held the tests and gave us a close back in Key Area. Seems like buying here from last week is just short covering and new longs who aren't strong enough to hold us up over Key Areas just yet with stronger buying coming below 4370s.
For the Downside - IF the Market can't hold over 4416.50 that would signal continued weakness and if 4405.25-92.25 area doesn't act as Support then we could see more selling. If we break and start holding below that it could bring in test of Current Support at 4378.50-74.75 IF we break it again that would give us another chance at lower targets.
4362.75-55 Would be the Key area to hold under during the week, under we could see more weakness towards 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 4327.25-21.50 These areas are close to our HTF Key Support so watch out for buyers at first tests and even possible a stronger bounce? If the market shows. We do have Contract Roll Gap under and we would have to see if we have enough supply to get inside it to maybe make a move towards bigger Support or no?
For the Upside - IF 4405.25-4392.25 can act as Support and Market can hold over it then that could bring in more buyers to get us back over VAL at 4416.50. We would need to get over that and hold over 22.78-18.75 which is a pretty big Current Resistance as we didn't have much buying over it last week. Only holding over that can bring higher prices and give a chance at 4445-37.75 which would be our mean and next Key Area to get through/hold over.
Unless we can do that then I would be careful trying to long unless its from Support areas if they show holds or strong buying from targets if they happen. Possible stronger buying area could be 4431.50-21.50 and under IF we get there.
** We could as well spend time in range under Value between 4420s-4370s-50s without going too much lower as this is still area of buying and unless we hold under/over Key areas then need to be careful. We do have lots of Market moving data this week so hopefully we can get some good trading and wont stay in range.
Comment:
Globex opened above 16.50 which put us in Value and brought stability. We have been consolidating around this Current Resistance all night and if we run out of supply we can see a move towards the mean at 4432.50-34.75-37.75. 4445-37.75 Would be Key Resistance for any continuation higher and 4422.75-18.75-16.50 area would need to hold as Support today, if we get under again and start holding that could bring in selling again.
Comment:
Holding over 4424.50-18.75 puts us in this 4422.75-18.75 4460-65 range and we can trade within until we fall out or accept above
Comment:
So far we reached Key Resistance and failed, I would watch out long if we get back under Previous Resistance if it doesn't hold as support. If it does hold the could keep us in this range over 24.50-18
Comment:
Globex pushed over Key Resistance but failed to hold and now we are back down at its low, if we fall out we can see a test of 4422.75-18.75 where we would look if we have supply to get through and continue or not IF we get there. To go higher today we would need to hold above 22-32 and get back over 45-49 but now we have more trapped supply above. This is also an area where if neither side goes we can spend more time in balance.
Comment:
So far Globex opened inside our next Key Resistance area, tried to hold above and came back in. Going into today we are at an important HTF area and unless we get strong buying then we probably should stay somewhat within its range with maybe a back fill some of the buying under us. Currently we are looking at 4508.75-02.50 as our Key Resistance, we would need to hold above and get get through 4525.25 if we are to see any continuation higher. We have Single prints and trapped shorts below us but if we get enough Supply built up here or some volume comes in we could see a back fill some of this move over VAH, if that happens we could probably target 4487.25, we have trapped shorts below so unless we have outside supply then 87.25-79.75 could hold as Support IF we get there if not that would be the spot to watch for any continuation. If we do hold 4508.75 and get through ON high we could see attempt at 4524.25-32.50 but we should still have supply in this area and unless buying is strong then that might not happen.