#ES Day Trading Prep Week 10.01 - 10.06
Level :
Current Balance 4378.50 - 4321.50
Resistance 4349.50 - 45.25 // 4362.75 - 59.50 Key Resistance 4378.50 - 74.75
Targets if accept over 4389.75 - 92.25 Area to accept over for continuation to VAL
Support 4327.25 - 21.50 Key Support 4310 - 07.25
Targets if can get through HTF Support 4291.50 - 85.75 // 4272 - 65.50 Would need to accept under for any continuation towards the GAP under 4250.
Last Week :
Marked opened and consolidated around the Edge area with a test and fail over it which gave us a nice move towards lower targets for the week filling Contract Roll Gap and testing HTF Key Support top which provided a nice bid and pushed the market back into the Contract Roll Gap area which was market off as potential place to either bounce or find Support at and so far we have built up inside it and failed to take it out again on Friday.
This Week :
This might be a tricky week, we have made a big move lower since the start of the move from week 9.17 - 9.22, we had balance extension x 4 to get here and so far looks like might have found new Current Balance maybe at least for short term to do some cleaning ? It is a start of a new month and we do have market moving data and events this week so we will have to see if we actually stay in this 4378.50 - 4321.50 Balance or not. I would think we could at least hold within until mid week or so to build up some more structure to show us the way.
If Balance :
We are looking to spend some time in this 4378.50 - 4321.50 area and trade with in our Resistance areas are 4349.50 - 45.25 // 4362.75 - 59.50 Key Resistance 4378.50 - 74.75
Support in this 4331.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 areas ? Would need to accept Over/Under Key Resistance / Current Support areas to try and move out of balance.
For More Downside :
To see more downside ideally we would want to build up more over 4327 - 21 and then get a break / continuation towards Key Support at 4310 - 07.25 area which would be the spot to watch for more continuation and we could target HTF Support high and possibly low with targets at 4291.50 - 85.75 // 4272 - 65.50 this would be spot to get through to try and target lower Gap area under 4250. We would need either more supply build up or selling volume to get us to those areas this week. If heavy volume could see 4240 - 30 - 20s area.
For Upside :
To see upside from here we would want to build up in this range and start taking out Resistance areas to make a run at the Edge and 4378.50 - 74.75 would be Key Resistance to watch acceptance over to be able to target 4392.25 and VAL area above. We would need either a strong bid or run out of selling above 4370s in order to try and continue higher this week.
Current Balance 4378.50 - 4321.50
Resistance 4349.50 - 45.25 // 4362.75 - 59.50 Key Resistance 4378.50 - 74.75
Targets if accept over 4389.75 - 92.25 Area to accept over for continuation to VAL
Support 4327.25 - 21.50 Key Support 4310 - 07.25
Targets if can get through HTF Support 4291.50 - 85.75 // 4272 - 65.50 Would need to accept under for any continuation towards the GAP under 4250.
Last Week :
Marked opened and consolidated around the Edge area with a test and fail over it which gave us a nice move towards lower targets for the week filling Contract Roll Gap and testing HTF Key Support top which provided a nice bid and pushed the market back into the Contract Roll Gap area which was market off as potential place to either bounce or find Support at and so far we have built up inside it and failed to take it out again on Friday.
This Week :
This might be a tricky week, we have made a big move lower since the start of the move from week 9.17 - 9.22, we had balance extension x 4 to get here and so far looks like might have found new Current Balance maybe at least for short term to do some cleaning ? It is a start of a new month and we do have market moving data and events this week so we will have to see if we actually stay in this 4378.50 - 4321.50 Balance or not. I would think we could at least hold within until mid week or so to build up some more structure to show us the way.
If Balance :
We are looking to spend some time in this 4378.50 - 4321.50 area and trade with in our Resistance areas are 4349.50 - 45.25 // 4362.75 - 59.50 Key Resistance 4378.50 - 74.75
Support in this 4331.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 areas ? Would need to accept Over/Under Key Resistance / Current Support areas to try and move out of balance.
For More Downside :
To see more downside ideally we would want to build up more over 4327 - 21 and then get a break / continuation towards Key Support at 4310 - 07.25 area which would be the spot to watch for more continuation and we could target HTF Support high and possibly low with targets at 4291.50 - 85.75 // 4272 - 65.50 this would be spot to get through to try and target lower Gap area under 4250. We would need either more supply build up or selling volume to get us to those areas this week. If heavy volume could see 4240 - 30 - 20s area.
For Upside :
To see upside from here we would want to build up in this range and start taking out Resistance areas to make a run at the Edge and 4378.50 - 74.75 would be Key Resistance to watch acceptance over to be able to target 4392.25 and VAL area above. We would need either a strong bid or run out of selling above 4370s in order to try and continue higher this week.
Comment:
Looks like downside move came sooner telling us more volume needs to come out. Under 27-21 we watch lower targets for continuation.
Comment:
Market flushed under Key Support today but failed to continue and tag lower targets and ended up closing in our Current Balance, watch out looking for continuation lower unless we can get under 27-21 and continue from there, if not we could consolidate and head towards Resistance targets as we are now back over Support.
Comment:
So far Globex has been consolidating around Support all night with failures to accept over 4327, If we don't get enough buying to keep us up and continue towards Resistance targets then we might have built up enough Supply for possible continuation lower ? If we can get under Support again we will have to see if we have enough to test 4310 - 07 and possibly continue towards lower targets for the week ? If we don't get enough selling for that and buying is still not strong enough for better pull back then could find ourself in tighter range but so far Supply has been building up and our better buyers are at HTF Support area.
Comment:
Don't forget about that Gap under 4250 today if we can get through 4272-65 we have that and maybe lower to test.
Comment:
91.50 got front ran again with buying and no break, 4310-07 // 4321 would be areas to watch today if we pull back and 91-85.75 would need to break for any continuation towards 72-65
Comment:
4265 was a big target for today and bottom of HTF Support, we tagged and flushed under. Careful getting too aggressive here as market made a big move today and this would be a place where size shorts would be covering, doesn't mean we will get a huge bounce as we have been getting because now we have more Supply coming out and buyers who would rather not pay too much for it. 4327 - 21 // 4310 - 07 towards 4291 - 85 // 72 - 65 was the trade today. It may consolidate and still go for that gap fill later, this 4272 - 65.50 and 4252.50 - 47.50 would be areas to watch. If we hold we can just start consolidating in this 4285-4260 area rest of the day or until it moves out again.
Comment:
What a week, Downside thesis played out nicely for the week and we found buying at HTF Support after we flushed it and consolidated to bring us back into our Weekly balance so did we even go anywhere? Once market go back over 91.50 today it was on and from 4327-21 break brought us back inside the mean at 4362-49.