#ES Day Trading Prep Week 9.17-9.22

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Levels to Watch :

Resistance 4508.75-02.50 ? Key Resistance 4532.50-24.25-19
Targets if Over 4548.75-43.75 // 4570.62.50

Support Prev Day Low 4497.25-94.75-90 ? Key Support 4487.25-79.75
Targets if Under VAH, 4465.25-60.25 // 4449.75-45-34.75 ( Needs to break/hold for ANY continuation ) // 4422.75-18.75 // 4403-4392.25
Range Edge 4375.75-4359.50

Last Week :
Thursday/Friday after the contract roll we ended up in key bigger time frame Range Edge area at 4508-25, we consolidated around it, held above 4508-02 which brought more buying to give us a push and hold over 4532-24 Resistance midweek. From there market was able to take out 4548.75-43.75 and make a move towards our HTF Supply and next target at 4570-62.50. RTH failed to test it and instead we got a push in, consolidation and fail at that area during Thursday Globex and once we got under the Supply and 4448-43 that gave us a nice end of week sell back towards Previous Resistance and then Support at 4508-02 which we ended up breaking and closing under.

This Week :
Tonight we are set to open under our previous Balance of 4548-43 // 4508-02 area after a failed break out above at the end of the week. Question this week is this just trapped supply from our 4570-62.50 area or is this bigger selling that could possibly give us continuation this week towards our lower targets?
Or do we get consolidating around Key Support / Previous Day Low areas and or find strong enough buying to push us back over 4508.75 and keep us in that balance which chance at higher targets?

For the Downside :
If the Market fails to to get over 4508.75-02.50 and hold above then we could see a break of Previous Day low and test of 4487.25-79.75 Key Support, depending on volume it could take time to get through but IF we do and start holding under that could give us more selling to continue through VAH towards lower targets -- Contract Roll Gap 4465.25-60.25, We have Swing Stops and Mean at 4449.75-34.75 area if we get through 65-60. This would be area to watch and hold under for any continuation, if we do get through it and get more selling we have 4422.75-18.75 and untested after we broke back in from below VAL area at 4416.50-05.50 as potential targets. With next area to watch at 4403-4392.25.

For the Upside :
Holding under 4524.25-4508.75-02.50 area means continued weakness, longs would need to be done from lower Support areas either on strong bounces or after some consolidations, if we the selling strong then need to be careful and be ready to exit those quicker. If we do get a hold around Previous Day Low / Key Support area or get strong buying to give us a push back over 4508.75 and hold then we could target a move back towards 4519-24.25 which would be Key Resistance for any continuation higher this week. If we do get a push through 4524.25-32.50 we then could target 4570-62.50 RTH test but for now a lot of Supply above so need to be careful.

We could get more sideways balancing action in this 4480-90 // 4525 areas unless we can take out and hold under/over targets, Structure under is not very strong so would be surprising to not see any continuation at least towards 65-60 if we can hold under 4508 but we will have to wait and see what we get.
Globex consolidated around 4508.75-02.50 and gave a flush towards Previous Day low and Key Support target at 4487.25-79.75. We got a tag of 87.25 and found buyers, as mentioned that is a Key area and might take time to get through. We might spend the day consolidating in a tighter range around this 4490-4505 +/- area, so holding under 08 today could give another test of this 87-79 area to see if we can get inside it or not. If we do break either side we could still see continuation but this is a tricky spot where we could balance today if we don't get follow through selling/buying.
Holding under 4508.75 can bring in more selling for another test of 4487-79.75 area which would be spot to watch for any continuation into VAH and 4465-60 Target. If we do hold 4502.50 and get back over 4508.75 that could bring in more buying to test 4519-24 But we would need to see strong buying to hold us here if not then we could test at least T2 low and 4590-87 again
And failure to get under 02.50 and hold could give another grindy smaller range day with a push towards Previous day high and 4519 area
Holding under 4500-4520 means continued weakness and we could see more downside today unless the market can find enough buyers to balance in this 4480-4520 area. If we do get under 4495 - 87 - 79 today then we could see more selling into the fed and don't forget about our lower targets if we do continue. We have supply above and market would need to hold over 4502-08 for stability to see any higher continuation.
Market pushed into Resistance area but as mentioned we needed to hold above 02 - 08 in RTH in order to see more strength in the market and to possibly bring in more buying and holding under 4500 - 20 is Weakness. We got the break of 4497.75 - 94.75 area, took out 87 - 79 and under 79 gave us continuation towards full Contract Gap Fill at 65 - 60 and continuation towards next target for the week our Current Range Mean and Swing Stops. We will have to see what we do tonight but we could still try to take out the 45 - 37 target and see if we will start holding under it? Selling volume seemed good today and holding under 65 - 60 can give us a test of 4422.75 - 18.75 if 45 - 37 goes, That would be area to watch and the untested VAL at 4416.50 - 05 - 03. For any continuation beyond that we would watch 4403-4392.25. That is a pretty big move but if selling is there we can see it play out still with 2 days left this week. Market would need to get back over 4465 - 60 to regain stability and maybe see a hold between 4460 - 87 - 4502 area but we now have more trapped supply above so unless we can get over and hold I would watch out.
Beautiful week, all lower targets hit down to the edge, May see some continuation today if we cant get back over 78-74 then can see continuation towards 62.75-59.50 and maybe under? And if we hold then we still have buyers at the edge area and may need more time to consolidate.

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