Hi traders,
Overview: yesterday, I published in my count the idea that the market has topped for wave X and we are going for new lows. However, this idea was invalidated today. I believe there were three hints that I could have used to prevent this wrong prediction (not to mention that in such a volatile week of FOMC and earnings, it is definitely tricky to come up with an idea of what the price action is going to do + the previously mentioned fact that we are trying to count a correction inside a correction!):
1. Looking at the weekend update I published on AAPL, TSLA , NVDA, and AMD, I had the same general prediction for all four of them: my prediction was that we are starting the week in wave IV and then we rally higher as wave V.
2. Looking at the daily chart of SPY, QQQ, AAPL, TSLA , NVDA, and AMD from 22nd to 26th July, we see a price action that screams a pullback is under process and not a reversal: decreasing volume on the leg with small candles.
3. On the hourly chart, we had a shallow wave (II), which should have guided us to expect a deep wave (IV).
Update: I believe today's price action was wave (V) of c of X, but it is not completed yet. Price targets for wave X top (4050-4060):
From higher degree to lower degree waves:
1) X retracement of Y: 4049.75
2) Wave c: 4052.25
3) Wave (V): 4059.5
Overview: yesterday, I published in my count the idea that the market has topped for wave X and we are going for new lows. However, this idea was invalidated today. I believe there were three hints that I could have used to prevent this wrong prediction (not to mention that in such a volatile week of FOMC and earnings, it is definitely tricky to come up with an idea of what the price action is going to do + the previously mentioned fact that we are trying to count a correction inside a correction!):
1. Looking at the weekend update I published on AAPL, TSLA , NVDA, and AMD, I had the same general prediction for all four of them: my prediction was that we are starting the week in wave IV and then we rally higher as wave V.
2. Looking at the daily chart of SPY, QQQ, AAPL, TSLA , NVDA, and AMD from 22nd to 26th July, we see a price action that screams a pullback is under process and not a reversal: decreasing volume on the leg with small candles.
3. On the hourly chart, we had a shallow wave (II), which should have guided us to expect a deep wave (IV).
Update: I believe today's price action was wave (V) of c of X, but it is not completed yet. Price targets for wave X top (4050-4060):
From higher degree to lower degree waves:
1) X retracement of Y: 4049.75
2) Wave c: 4052.25
3) Wave (V): 4059.5
