In the hypothesis in which ETH assumes a repetitive behavior, both in terms of time and of absolute value of price oscillation, I wanted to show a possible trend.
As you can see in the chart I represent four scenarios in the price trend. How come so many scenarios? Obviously because the price is still moving in unsafe directions to be confirmed, so it is better to remember that we must be ready to adapt to the price change.
Basically I have identified (in black) three support lines within the , based on the time and price levels of previous moves.
It was interesting to note that these fluctuations fall perfectly within the levels.
To facilitate the reading of the price trend I have therefore chosen a sinusoid (in orange) symmetrical to the central line of the channel (in purple) which, as previously, acts as an additional resistance / support for the horizontal movements of the price.
I have also hypothesized that the recent price drop, consistently with the that I designed, is finished or is about to end soon, thus starting a period of accumulation.
Currently, being just at the beginning of a possible direction reversal, it is very difficult to state exactly when the price will come out of the . But I still wanted to represent the most probable price trend. It should be noted that there may be other trends not represented within the channel due to graphic simplification but which is worth clarifying.
In my opinion it is possible that the price may be trapped between the of support and the middle line (as said before it may act as a resistance, like in the beginning of the channel) thus missing the first opportunity to exit it. This would be the most scenario and could cause further price reduction. Instead, if the price were to start moving sideways using the midline as new support, it could be an early signal. It is therefore necessary to observe also the put into play in order not to run into traps.
For now I would be watching if in the coming days (7/10 days) if the price follows the identified graphic pattern.
However, if there is a more solid confirmation also from the technical indicators, I will begin to identify entry and exit points for possible trades.
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-- This is not financial advice, for illustrative purposes only. Thanks! --