BITTREX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
The altseason has a lot to do with ETH behavior, which means we need to see ETH pumping again. That can take BTC dominance down (since ETH has the largest marketcap among alts), which will confirm the altseason.

Let's take a look at ETH time cycles:
Each cycle has 357 days ~ one full year.
We see that each cycle starts with a low, then ETH pumps in the first half of it (usually within the first 20% of the time cycle) and after that a decline follows and results in the final low at the end of the cycle.
The current cycle ends in the beginning of December which is notable, because ETH hardfork Istanbul is scheduled to happen on Dec. 4. Pretty fascinating coincidence, isn't it? (or is it just a coincidence?)

The way we approach the cycle end is pretty interesting too and it can give us a clue of what will happen, so let's take a bit closer look at ETH/BTC chart
ETH has a very important event on Dec. 4th - ETH hardfork Istambul. This can be the catalyst for the rise that we need, because the Istanbul is the last milestone before Ethereum's final upgrade which is set to take place in 2020.

On weekly ETH/BTC chart we have a clear Resistance at 0.022, the low at 0.016 and a higher low at 0.019. All this looks like a preset for an ascending triangle , which, however, still needs confirmation. It may have a bit different shape in the end, but the horizontal resistance is the only fixed border of a potential ascending triangle and the ETH hardfork takes place right in the apex of it. The break above it could take us to EMA50 (0.027 area), which is a 23% move. It's also notable that BTC dominance is sitting on its critical support and if it breaks, this can result in a significant altcoin party.


Let us know what you think about this idea in the comments! It really needs discussion.


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ETH / BTC Pivot Points. Ascending Triangle - Head and Shoulders
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That ETHBTC chart looks like the bottom of BTC late 2018.
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It looks like it is one of the same cycle, not four. Maybe it is not bottoming to start the second cycle.
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Assuming that these percentages have been correctly calculated (I trust the author and I don't check):

2000% to 420% -> increase almost 5x less interesting

420% to 70% -> rise 6x less interesting than the previous one and almost 30x less interesting than the last but one.

So you expect an Altcoins / Satoshi increase of 70% / 7 = ~10% ?!

Take the risk of selling your valuable BTC for shitcoins like ETH hoping for a 10% gain... are you desperate at this point dears altcoinists ? O:-)
+3 Reply
Great post! Was trying to find a tuturiol on time cycles, only found ganns vertical time cycles. Can you provide some colour on how to use time cycle posted?
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I wait to see when a analyst plugs in the central bank's QE into the equation ;)
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Base on the % gain trend. Next one 10% gain. lol
+4 Reply
BankofEngland paranoiakid
@paranoiakid, - Or massive loss.
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I am quite convinced that some form of altseason will come, just based on the overall sentiment. I think there is no way that it would be like the last one, that was a one time thing.
I remember well, when Bitcoin was getting beaten every day during the alt pump, the trash talk...about bitcoin.
Now people are talking trash about alts. Sure, vast majority of them are just trash. If is it trash, so why for example LTC managed to get 500% from its lows?
And I think that XMR can very well compete with BTC as well. Or DASH. Or LINK. Or BAT. And so on. Good projects are out there. I would say, sitting 100% in BTC now is "risky".
+3 Reply
@Byte91, yeah, the 2017 - early 2018 was an exceptional altseason and it will hardly repeat, but alts will have their time sooner or later.
I agree with you that there are some good projects, but they are not even close to Bitcoin in terms of value proposition.
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