Introduction
The ETHBTC chart is of special interest because eth and BTC are broadly highly correlated with some key distinctions. A main distinction is usually BTCUSD peaks first and then ETHUSD peaks second so when you see ETH really begin to the upside while BTC is moving sideways or is rangebound it is time to tunnel into the several charts (ETHBTC, ETHUSD and BTCUSD) to see what is really going on. For this reason identifying key reversal areas on ETHBTC can be informative because it can stop you from getting to greedy.
Analysis
Often on a retrace to all time highs price can stall at areas where previous highs or previous lows. I find looking at the topping structures and boxing them off with a rectangle that you extend right can help settle the emotions when price is pumping and you are conflicted about two different pieces of trading advice: letting your winners run vs taking profits never made a man poor.
Much like everything in life these bands can be drawn conservatively or aggressively but hopefully you have some reasoning in there. Here is the ATH for ETHBTC and this time I included the boarder. I identified the top of the bull trap and the base of the candle bodies as where I would predict a stall.
I used a similar strategy on LTCUSD. The gray box is based off of the candle body of the last green candle in the bulltrap. Felt pretty pleased about that until I used the gains to back up an imprudent trade's margin call and lost much of it like a fool. As I say repeatedly, for me charting is easy, trading is much harder.
Looking for confluence I see that the flagpole target gets us right to the blue zone. I am not trading the ETHBTC pair but I would expect the broader market to hiccup and stall there. It may not look like much on ETHBTC, but if BTC goes down 20% and ETH goes down 30% it only looks like a 10% dip on ETHBTC but people are making and losing fortunes.
Inside that falling wedge on the flagpole I see a rising channel. Given the bullishness in the broader market I suspect we may get one more test of the channel support and then we will break up the height of the channel. I like that the midline has some validity as support and resistance and we may see price just settle on the midline but I think that is a minority chance of happening. I think that the rising broadening wedge may act as support still over the next year.
Closing thoughts
For the month of July my posts on ETHBTC were broadly bearish. After the monthly candle closed on ETHUSD I had to eat crow due to it flipping bullish according to my system. Not to re-hash the system I use to determine my bias but the monthly indicators are bullish:
The weekly indicators are in a in-between zone but it appears the MTF VSTOP is holding up very well.
Basically once the MTF VSTOP gets taken out on the 3 Day ETH should be off to the races against BTC end USD.
The ETHBTC chart is of special interest because eth and BTC are broadly highly correlated with some key distinctions. A main distinction is usually BTCUSD peaks first and then ETHUSD peaks second so when you see ETH really begin to the upside while BTC is moving sideways or is rangebound it is time to tunnel into the several charts (ETHBTC, ETHUSD and BTCUSD) to see what is really going on. For this reason identifying key reversal areas on ETHBTC can be informative because it can stop you from getting to greedy.
Analysis
Often on a retrace to all time highs price can stall at areas where previous highs or previous lows. I find looking at the topping structures and boxing them off with a rectangle that you extend right can help settle the emotions when price is pumping and you are conflicted about two different pieces of trading advice: letting your winners run vs taking profits never made a man poor.
Much like everything in life these bands can be drawn conservatively or aggressively but hopefully you have some reasoning in there. Here is the ATH for ETHBTC and this time I included the boarder. I identified the top of the bull trap and the base of the candle bodies as where I would predict a stall.
I used a similar strategy on LTCUSD. The gray box is based off of the candle body of the last green candle in the bulltrap. Felt pretty pleased about that until I used the gains to back up an imprudent trade's margin call and lost much of it like a fool. As I say repeatedly, for me charting is easy, trading is much harder.
Looking for confluence I see that the flagpole target gets us right to the blue zone. I am not trading the ETHBTC pair but I would expect the broader market to hiccup and stall there. It may not look like much on ETHBTC, but if BTC goes down 20% and ETH goes down 30% it only looks like a 10% dip on ETHBTC but people are making and losing fortunes.
Inside that falling wedge on the flagpole I see a rising channel. Given the bullishness in the broader market I suspect we may get one more test of the channel support and then we will break up the height of the channel. I like that the midline has some validity as support and resistance and we may see price just settle on the midline but I think that is a minority chance of happening. I think that the rising broadening wedge may act as support still over the next year.
Closing thoughts
For the month of July my posts on ETHBTC were broadly bearish. After the monthly candle closed on ETHUSD I had to eat crow due to it flipping bullish according to my system. Not to re-hash the system I use to determine my bias but the monthly indicators are bullish:
The weekly indicators are in a in-between zone but it appears the MTF VSTOP is holding up very well.
Basically once the MTF VSTOP gets taken out on the 3 Day ETH should be off to the races against BTC end USD.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion