MarcelV
Short

Minimal-risk short opportunity

POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
Hi guys,

A quick chart!

Our Behemoth short is still valid. Looking at the recent development, I feel confident enough to pronounce this as a good short opportunity for those who are not short yet. I myself have added a considerable amount of shorts at 2250.

The trend line is holding. It's breakout is our hard stop-loss. (In Behemoth I marked it at 2250 price level, but we rose too fast, the trend line is still at 2300.)
Target is 1124.

Ok, now why would you want to short this?

From 1H TA perspective:
  • First, we have the strong trend-line which has never been broken before.
  • Second, there is a great Bearish DIV             on RSI .
  • Third, KDJ is showing overbought and turning red.
  • Fourth, the infamous H&S pattern seems to be reaching its completion -> the pattern sux and so I think it won't complete fully.

Happy trading!

P.S. For more analysis on ETH, read-up on the latest long-term chart:
Behemoth short - sell the news #2
Trade active: Trade is active since 2250.
Quick update:
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: We are breaking down from the short-term bullish channel.
RSI is in downtrend.
The major bearish trend-line will hold.

Happy trading!
Trade active: Hi. a quick update!

Im on my phone. Just letting u know that I added more shorts here just recently at 2175.

I believe that this will not go above 2200 again. So now is a good time to go short. Our Behemoth short trade is going to develop right after whales quit their little games.

If you can get a solid entry at around 2160, I will be looking to add some more shorts there as well.

Happy trading!
Trade closed: target reached: Hi, I discovered a new support trendline today and we did hit it just minutes ago. It goes from 1650 and extends through 1980 to our bounce target 2060. See:
http://prntscr.com/au9gxm

So I closed the short-term short at 2066 and longed there for scalp. Target for close of long around 2150 and reshorting then, level for reshort depending on situation.

I am very sorry I cannot update you guys in here at the same minute as I close the trades.. but its not possible. Wish there was an in-built integration between poloniex and TV :)
I do, however, share my live trades almost immediately in the TV chat room called "Cryptocurrencies". If u are active there, its easy to follow me.

Happy trading!

P.S. If you didn't close at 2070, keep the shorts open imo. Bounce above 2100 is not 100%... it would be ridiculous to close at 2100 and reopen at 2080. :) If you closed below 2100, try reopen at around 2150, but be ready to jump on the train if we go south with acceleration. Especially if the support trendline gets broken.

P.P.S. Long-term I am still SHORT and I do keep a special account just for that. Trust me. It may doom any time soon.
Trade active: Quick update.

Btc broke 2800CNY!!!

Exit longs, now. Be very careful, try to get into short :)
Trade closed: target reached: Yo!

Closed all shorts at 2010. Went long at 2020, will be closing at 2100.
Reshort area 2100~2150.

Happy trading, enjoy ur profits!
Trade closed: target reached: Guys, closed my longs at 2049. Close now at 2045 if you wish.

Reason: My wounds started hurting a lot, I took analgetics and will be hitting the bed. Next update no sooner than in 7+ hrs.

Happy trading!
Trade closed: target reached: I was scalping a bit in the end...
Trade closed: target reached: Overall, this has been one great short trade! 1972 is the bottom for today... close short, lock in profit. Be pro, not noob. RSI saying this dont have more space down and showing Bull DIV.

Happy trading! :)
Trade active: Hi, I just woke up.
I was little bit wrong. 1720 was not the bottom. Sorry for that. Not sure what exactly happened, because I was sleeping, so can't comment on that.

On the other hand, we perfectly hit the major Gann line, same as with 1650. This definitely is the second major trend line, forming a triangle. (Just press play on this published chart, you will see perfect hit of surgical precision).

So, what to do now? If you longed with me, here you can close with small profit. I will take the risk and keep my longs for testing the top of the triangle.

Happy trading :)
Comment: See zoomed-out 1D Graph, 2/1 Gann trend line is perfectly hit :) I did not move that thing a milimeter.

snapshot
Excuse me sir, I'm new on this, but ain't the head&shoulder bottom shows a break out?
+1 Reply
MarcelV PRO whooshfck
yeah.. although there is some small room left for its completion, this inverse H&S might be done
Reply
So it did break out, and is hitting the bearish trendline, plus BTC price is going down. May I ask why do you target 1124?
I understand that RSI, Stoch and KDJ are all in the overbought zone, and also the whale's move on Poloniex suggest it will fall down, but I think it'll be just a minor correction before it rise up again.
I'm still learning on this and really want to hear your opinion.
+1 Reply
MarcelV PRO whooshfck
The target comes from my previous analysis.

Reply
MarcelV PRO whooshfck
I believe we are in the "Fear" phase of the bubble cycle (bagholders are worried the asset they bought might not get them a sportscar tmw). Witnessing a nice 40% bounce it's time to head towards the "Capitulation" phase http://i.imgur.com/9YdMiB6.jpg
Reply
MarcelV PRO whooshfck
P.S. Good analysis on your own there. Not everyone can read the whale moves like you do :) I share your view.
Reply
Thank you for your update sir. I can't help but notice this is the very same pattern like the last crash from 292 to 165. If it follows that pattern to the end I'd expect it to go even lower than your goal.
+1 Reply
MarcelV PRO whooshfck
Yes, there is some resemblance to the last crash! :) I will be taking profit at 1124. Ultimately, it will drop even lower. That is marked in the Behemoth short chart at .0068 which will mark the "Despair" phase of the Bubble cycle.
Reply
MarcelV PRO whooshfck
Behemoth short - sell the news #2
Reply
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