MarcelV
Short

Behemoth short - sell the news #2

POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
9 months ago
Hi all,

We took short today from 2006, which went fine. Second thoughts were dispersed when 3-day triangle went south. Following a nice 25% recovery from 1650, psychological level 2000 failed to hold. Scheduled sell-off is going to take control from here.

Expect strong bear trend continuation, with acceleration towards 1124 target.

Technical analysis is explained in the chart:
Kumo, AO, RSI , DMI             = bear!
Gann , Fibo reveal the target.

Fundamental analysis:
- btc is rising
- 33K gas created every day and in pos             it will be 165K
- money is moving to older exchanges like BTCe right now. Expect pump on older alts like LTC             , PPC             , NMC            
- whale capital is leaving polo
- still unresolved technical / inflational issues
- sell the news article
- ETH inflation rate per year in POS             100%. So 180 million tokens by end of 2017.

When to short? If you followed today's idea, you shorted at 2006. If not, now is a good time to short from 1935. Triangle was broken and as such, downtrend continuation is confirmed = less risk.
eth short

Soft stop-loss: 2000
Hard stop-loss: 2250 ( trendline break ) -> would signal a bull market. Until then, this is bear market.

Happy trading!
9 months ago
Comment: This is one of the best short opportunities out there. Given that we are in bubble cycle and have just shorted Bull trap on our previous trade.

Now we gonna short "Fear" phase down to "Capitulation" phase.

After rebound, expect another short down to "Despair" phase.
9 months ago
Comment: Use dogecoin for comparison :) https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/comments/2n2q52/understanding_the_life_cycle_of_a_bubble_for/
9 months ago
Comment: Quick Commentary:
1870-1900 range has been visited, the support was thinning and sell pressure increasing. However! A small group of individuals with large capital decided that the price wouldn't break the 1H Kumo and minutes before each hourly close, they pumped the price just to close inside the cloud. See chart:

snapshot


After they got invested heavily, it was just a question whether they are strong enough to profit on holding the price above cloud. Their strength, manifestated by 25k buy walls, managed to breach our Soft stop-loss level.

That is signal to reassess and be cautious. My reassessment: hodling the shorts tightly af! :)

A friend of mine, Esuvari, investigated the linear scale and found some interesting trend-lines I like. Thumbs up for him!

Eth rejected by the downtrend resistance once again


For now, it is suggested to stay calm and let the bull machos finish their game. They're shaking out weak hands out of the short position. Patience is a Virtue.

Happy trading!
9 months ago
Trade active: Today, we added to our shorts at 2250 level. Unless the major bear trend-line is broken, it is safe to add to shorts.
See our most recent analysis:
Minimal-risk short opportunity
phlogistax
9 months ago
Thanks for your charts, they are very helpful and I appreciate your work. What is your attitude about Ether in the longer term? Say the second half of this year and into 2017?
+1 Reply
MarcelV PRO phlogistax
9 months ago
Thanks for appreciation! :)
Reply
MarcelV PRO phlogistax
9 months ago
Currently, we are following the bubble cycle. After the cycle, Ether will be forgotten for a while and it may or may not enter another healthy phase later... I reckon Doge is good to compare to.
Reply
JohanCastellanos
9 months ago
I like your fundamental analysis! Keep the hard work.
+1 Reply
MarcelV PRO JohanCastellanos
9 months ago
Thanks for appreciation! :)
Reply
Thinkit
9 months ago
I like it.
Because i think ETH will down.
+1 Reply
MarcelV PRO Thinkit
9 months ago
Thanks! Thinking the same :)
Reply
kdiav PRO
9 months ago
I'm starting to have doubts, most expect ETH to fail again, so it makes sense to not go back down this time.
Also the continuous popping of ICOs on seemingly-very-promising services on ETH, make me thing that this bubble will hold for a while.
Reply
Petros PRO
9 months ago
Comparing Ethereum to Doge is kind of wierd in the light of the technology behind Ethereum. Doge had nothing to offer, while ETH has immense utilitary value. Do you take this fact into account?
Reply
MarcelV PRO Petros
9 months ago
Isn't its (limited) utilitary value already priced in? afai see it public already bought. I know my sister could buy Doge, but she certainly will not buy programmable coin. Its not catchy and cerainly not sexy. Like.. "Ethereum accepted here." I wouldn't bother. Doge was better. Yes, ETH attracts institutions and banks.. The technology behind it is nice (DAPPs). The currency though, is unattractive, not suitable for payments, and in general, crap.
Reply
Petros PRO MarcelV
9 months ago
End users won't buy ETH tokens anyway. They're not designed to be money like BTC. Their primary use is to fuel the network. The fact that wierdos like us can trade them is a side-effect. How do ypu support the argument that it's already priced in? Was Internet already priced in after the first release of Netscape?
+1 Reply
MarcelV PRO Petros
9 months ago
Agree with that! Idk if its already priced in, but I think so... they did market the decentralized programmable network a lot.. and that is all they can offer. Internet wasn't marketed like that.
Reply
Petros PRO MarcelV
9 months ago
Well.. Internet was not a decentralized programmable network, so it had room for improvement, wich manifested in form Bitcoin and Ethereum after years. These are really revolutionary concepts.

The Market will asses how good of an improvement they are. It's good though that the Market doesn't care about what we think.
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