For those who have been following our updates and charts on Telegram, you remember that we've posted the same chart back in December 2018 pending the completion of the green IH&S. At this moment, the market seems to have completed enough consolidation to attempt another breakout to complete the last shoulder of the IH&S and activate it with a hit of 0.040.
You can clearly notice looking at the chart that ETHBTC has a strong repeating IH&S bull reversal historical pattern (we are going for the 3rd now) within the log parallel , and once that we activate the IH&S we will very likely have a similar explosive Megabull on this pair (even ETHUSD ) towards the top of the channel around few potential targets depending on how Bitcoin pans out:
0.51-0.61 BTC - which is most likely the final target, target that we had since December
The question is pretty much the timing hence why two fractals were included with the blue topping on August 2019 and the delayed purple with a top in May 2020 right around Bitcoin's halving. Feel free to discuss if you agree or disagree!
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We could also lose the IH&S potential with a drop below 0.027 as the last shoulder would be too deep and VOID that bull reversal pattern.
If the IH&S is lost, then we will have to look for a double bottom at 0.0257-0.0240 area which may occur when Bitcoin hits $6,000-6,400.
If we go below 0.029 to 0.028-0.277 then we are most likely going to see that IH&S cancelled and the double bottom trade activated.
The double bottom trade would be a test of the 0.0257-0.0240 previous support which is also the bottom of the blue falling wedge.
0.0257-0.0240 would be a good area to buy at or take a long.
Stoploss: The bulls will need to break up past the top of the blue potential falling wedge at 0.0314 and hit 0.0335 to reverse the trend to bullish very short-term. For a mid-term bullish signal past 0.038 would be needed
Currently it is trying to break the top of the blue falling wedge at 0.0314 and hit 0.0328 to confirm a bull reversal short-term. I am watching this closely for a confirmation. If it fails to confirm the break out then a drop to 0.029 would be in the cards. The ETHBTC action will be closely tied with Bitcoin's move soon to $6,000-6,400 which could add considerable selling pressure on the ETHBTC ratio, so it will be interesting to see the outcome.
Up we go to 0.027 and 0.030-0.029
Currently at the 0.032-0.0326 resistance, if it breaks then it would confirm the move to 0.0354. That means that ETHUSD goes to $290-300 roughly
Bears: activates with a breakdown below 0.0240 (watching this scenario closely)
The purple fractal in this case shows just for reference the downtrend that would start on ETHBTC and across the ALTSBTC and ALTSETH market. This would be a very bearish outcome where ALTS would not have their bull run until 2020 mainly due to Bitcoin starting its early Megabull through 2019 till $55,000-66,000 (mirroring early 2011-2013 early adopters megabulls - see bitcoin-long-term channel). Meanwhile ETHUSD would stay in sideways roughly around the current and strong support of $310-290 to start its bull run much later in 2020 along ALTS.
Would love to be proven wrong, but I'm skeptical on Ethereum.
That's a market cap of around 275 Billion $. I don't believe that's possible, at least not yet. I believe it would take more than 10 years to get anywhere near a 275 B$ valuation for ETH.