The ETHBTC Megabull Pending the Activation of the IH&S Pattern

BITTREX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
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For those who have been following our updates and charts on Telegram, you remember that we've posted the same chart back in December 2018 pending the completion of the green IH&S. At this moment, the market seems to have completed enough consolidation to attempt another breakout to complete the last shoulder of the IH&S and activate it with a hit of 0.040.

You can clearly notice looking at the chart that ETHBTC has a strong repeating IH&S bull reversal historical pattern (we are going for the 3rd now) within the log parallel bull channel , and once that we activate the IH&S we will very likely have a similar explosive Megabull on this pair (even ETHUSD ) towards the top of the channel around few potential targets depending on how Bitcoin pans out:

0.32-0.36 BTC
0.51-0.61 BTC - which is most likely the final target, target that we had since December

The question is pretty much the timing hence why two fractals were included with the blue fractal topping on August 2019 and the delayed purple fractal with a top in May 2020 right around Bitcoin's halving. Feel free to discuss if you agree or disagree!

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Comment: Can't go wrong in buying near the bottom of the bull parallel channel
Trade active:
Comment: ETHBTC is currently losing the log bull parallel channel with that drop below 0.031-0.029 support and it would be safer to switch back to Bitcoin momentarily.

We could also lose the IH&S potential with a drop below 0.027 as the last shoulder would be too deep and VOID that bull reversal pattern.

If the IH&S is lost, then we will have to look for a double bottom at 0.0257-0.0240 area which may occur when Bitcoin hits $6,000-6,400.

Comment: Not liking what I am seeing on ETHBTC here. The momentum on the 30min 3H 4H 6H is bearish and a sudden strong move by Bitcoin in the next few hours can send it washing down fast. Here is what to look for in the incoming hours:

If we go below 0.029 to 0.028-0.277 then we are most likely going to see that IH&S cancelled and the double bottom trade activated.
The double bottom trade would be a test of the 0.0257-0.0240 previous support which is also the bottom of the blue falling wedge.

0.0257-0.0240 would be a good area to buy at or take a long.

Stoploss: The bulls will need to break up past the top of the blue potential falling wedge at 0.0314 and hit 0.0335 to reverse the trend to bullish very short-term. For a mid-term bullish signal past 0.038 would be needed
Comment: Looks like ETHBTC stopped in the middle grey area between the double bottom and IH&S last shoulder at 0.028-0.0277 and spiked back up.

Currently it is trying to break the top of the blue falling wedge at 0.0314 and hit 0.0328 to confirm a bull reversal short-term. I am watching this closely for a confirmation. If it fails to confirm the break out then a drop to 0.029 would be in the cards. The ETHBTC action will be closely tied with Bitcoin's move soon to $6,000-6,400 which could add considerable selling pressure on the ETHBTC ratio, so it will be interesting to see the outcome.

Comment: ETHBTC near our double bottom buy/long level at 0.0257-0.0240. Stoploss at: 0.0230
Comment: Buy/Long target hit at 0.0257-0.0240 for a double bottom and bull reversal attempt. We will need to break the blue falling wedge's top to confirm this reversal
Comment: Double bottom looking good after days or weeks of chop!

Up we go to 0.027 and 0.030-0.029

Comment: The double bottom bull reversal on ETHBTC looks super strong.

Currently at the 0.032-0.0326 resistance, if it breaks then it would confirm the move to 0.0354. That means that ETHUSD goes to $290-300 roughly

Comment: Soon! be ready, its coming!

Trade closed: stop reached: Unfortunately, ETHBTC has failed to remain above 0.0260. And the scenario on the 12H Bollinger Bands squeeze and 12H momentum bull cross I was watching in the past days has failed. The bearishness is settling in now the more time we spend within the important support of 0.0250-0.0240. The next 24 hours will be very important in confirming the break down/bear scenario of that support. If we break down then we can easily see a sell off towards the next potential bottom at 0.0181-0.0151.

Bears: activates with a breakdown below 0.0240 (watching this scenario closely)
The purple fractal in this case shows just for reference the downtrend that would start on ETHBTC and across the ALTSBTC and ALTSETH market. This would be a very bearish outcome where ALTS would not have their bull run until 2020 mainly due to Bitcoin starting its early Megabull through 2019 till $55,000-66,000 (mirroring early 2011-2013 early adopters megabulls - see bitcoin-long-term channel). Meanwhile ETHUSD would stay in sideways roughly around the current and strong support of $310-290 to start its bull run much later in 2020 along ALTS.
Bearish targets:

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+2 Reply
These ratios are unrealistic IMO. This implies that Ethereum would have a higher marketcap than Bitcoin. I just don't see this happening or this fractal playing out the same way. The ICO craze is long gone, so where is the supply of ETH going to get locked up?

Would love to be proven wrong, but I'm skeptical on Ethereum.
+1 Reply
@XZFAN, But I am holding ETH in-case I am wrong. Lol.
+1 Reply
YES someone else is seeing this potential too. I just did a video on why ETH could see a 70% move here soon correlated with the psychology of a market cycle. I like how you guys are showing this move based on trendlines. We are using the Martin Trend Trader that gives up long and short alerts to get in at the bottom of these moves and we're currently long awaiting your prediction to come true :) Best of luck you guys!
+2 Reply
Yes in long run, no in short-term. Being long ETH is a crowded trade right now. Pull back probable.
+1 Reply
BitcoinGuru CryptoniteTV
@CryptoniteTV, good chart yes bearish H&S short-term possible although the likely hood is low unless the higher highs and higher lows gives in and we make lower lows. But definitely were keeping an eye on that as if it plays out it would open the door to our earlier double bottom call.
CryptoniteTV BitcoinGuru
@BitcoinGuru, Nice work!
@BitcoinGuru Buddy cool strategy. I think everything will work out. I will follow you, interesting how it will end
+2 Reply
BitcoinGuru IgorPorokh
@IgorPorokh, thank you!
if you value it at 0.51 BTC, then the price of ETH would be around at 15x from where it is now. If BTC grows let's say 10x, then BTC would be priced at 50k$. That means ETH would be around 25k$ per token...
That's a market cap of around 275 Billion $. I don't believe that's possible, at least not yet. I believe it would take more than 10 years to get anywhere near a 275 B$ valuation for ETH.
+4 Reply
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