ETHUSD: Major Support Within Reach.

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
ETHUSD 0.01% Update: Bearish momentum continues on the near term. The break of the 250 to 240 area (red arrow), and continuation of new lows signals a change which is likely to be thrusting this market into a broad consolidation. In order for this market to PROVE that there are any chances of a significant bullish retracement, the 245 resistance level needs to be compromised. And to signal that the major bullish trend is likely to continue, the 284 resistance needs to be taken out. Unless these scenarios take place, I expect prices to drift lower, POSSIBLY to the low 200s before there are any signs of stability. (Inversion and bounce on 6/26 see chart).

The way I intend to trade this is to first wait for a break above 245, and then look to buy the next pull back. Keep in mind this scenario may never play out, but at the moment that is what I would like to see in order to buy into this market for a swing trade.

In order for the major bullish trend to become questionable, price needs to push below 160. I DON'T KNOW if that will happen, but if it does, it will point to further selling in the long run and would prevent me from swing trading this market from the long side.

Remember as a price action trader, my goal is to WAIT for elements to align in order to stack PROBABILITIES in my favor, not make absolute predictions. As the market offers new information, I adjust.

Feel free to ask any questions.
Marc Principato, CMT |Author: Analyze Any Financial Market Like The Pros Using Price Action| | Cofounder (S.C.)

following you sir thanks
I really like your charts. Thank you!

You can really tell that people moved away from Ethereum from its relation to bitcoin. Seems like sentiment has changed big time . Do you really see $280 as still being a possibility? A lot of people dont see bitcoin going much higher than $2600 short term. Makes me thing that high $260's might be as high as ETH can go without new news. What do you think?
MarcPMarkets PositiveVibe
@PositiveVibe, sentiment has changed and that is what consolidations are all about. The fear that is holding the crowd back is BIP 148. This is a change that is scheduled to happen on 8/1. It is supposed to improve the BTC network. I like to think of it as sort of a stock split. BTC will be split into 2. Just like ETH and ETC. No one knows how the market will react after that event so participants are cautious and getting out of their long term positions. I would too. To answer your question, based on the current market structure, it is possible to reach 280 before 8/1, but I do not think we will see new all time highs until after BIP 148. A fundamental event like this is not something technicals help anticipate. Anything can happen. If I get any buy signals from now until that point, and I get long, I will NOT hold anything into that date. Once the market unfolds after the big event, I will reevaluate from there.
Great job, thanks for your input!
@tonezzz, You're welcome T, thanks, happy to help.
I appreciate your insights and detailed explanation of your approach and the logic behind it. I think we have a strong chance at hitting the $160 range. A lot of ETH was handed over to companies pushing ICOs recently, and they're already starting to cash in. The bears smell blood, and they're coming for it.
NoCode326 forkknife777
@forkknife777, The ICO influence is overblown, many have their own coins tied to ETH, it doesn't make sense to dump. Some sure, but not a total offload. Are you aware that by Monday the talk of crypto land will be LedgerX getting CFTC options settlement approval for Bitcoin? That little piece of information certainly isn't bearish for cryptos. And the implications for ETH in that regard are arguably far more bullish that BTC. Bears should tread carefully or they will get crushed. Most of the shorting opportunity has long past $170 ago. The risk reward isn't there.
@NoCode326, I don't know of any other than Bancor that have their token tied to ETH, and multiple large ICOs have already begun to sell. As the price drops, it's not a stretch to see other ICOs offloading come larger sums of their ETH to get enough fiat to keep things running if it takes a major dip. I know about the CFTC options approval, and it could very well be the news that the market needed to turn around. In the grand scheme of things, this will all be a tiny dot at the very beginning of something very big, so even if I miss out on some profit, I know I'll come out ahead in the long run.
MarcPMarkets forkknife777
@forkknife777, Also thanks for your insight as well. Great perspective on the fundamentals involved. There is a ton of uncertainty around the change that is going to happen to BTC on 8/1 as well. Keeping this in mind, I do not intend to hold anything going into that day. If I am holding anything for a few days, that is a lot right now. I keep an open mind and just listen to price.
forkknife777 MarcPMarkets
@MarcPMarkets, I got into Ethereum before it broke $20. I have no problem taking my profit and sitting on the sidelines for a bit, and I have to remind myself that it's never wrong to take profit. As I said before, even if I miss out on some potential games, I'll wait for the right signals to buy back in. I'm a firm believer in the Sentiment cycle, and I think it's safe to see we have not yet reached capitulation. Reference:
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