Let's first address the new low made at 169. This is very close to the . area of the major trend (and a typical target for a wave 4 to complete). Price is showing significant rejection off of this area with a long tail candle on the . This is usually a sign of buying, but not enough for me to get long on this time frame. As long as 160 holds, I am still on ETHUSD . Also keep in mind this type of behavior going into a major fundamental event (BIP 148) is also normal in my opinion. Any kind of negative news leading up to that event is going to amplify the uncertainty that is already circulating through this market.
As far as support goes, 186 (.618 of minor upswing) is a good reference point based on smaller time frame price structures. As long as price stays above that, prices should be more stable to the upside. This is a good reference for short time horizon trades, like day trades or multiday swing trades. Buying and holding for new highs is not a good idea yet in my opinion.
As I write this, 199 has been compromised which signals buyers coming back into this market. Any subsequent retrace from here, especially above 186 will provide a lower risk entry for short term long trades. For a much broader sign of buying, 223 and 261 resistance areas must be taken out. IF that happens, it would then be reasonable to expect a retest of the 318 swing high in the near term. At the present, those resistances only serve as a reference point for short time horizon shorts. As long as price stays below these levels, this market is more likely to consolidate.
In summary, referencing the bigger picture during dramatic price moves provides better perspective. From what I can see, ETHUSD is still in a major as long as 160 holds. There are major resistances above that until compromised, will keep this market fluctuating in a wide 100 point range. In light of BIP 148, this is not unusual. I intend to keep my trades within the day trade or swing trade time horizon until that date. Plenty of trade opportunities will emerge in this market until then.
At the moment I am watching the 192 area for a possible support and day trade long entry. If price continues higher I will be evaluating pullbacks for reversal structures since 199 as been taken out as I write this.
Questions, comments welcome.