MarcPMarkets

ETHUSD: New Lows Into Support Zone. Attractive Investment.

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
ETHUSD update: Dramatic retrace takes this market back to the 872 upper boundary of a larger magnitude support zone much faster than expected. Price is now in an area that offers better opportunity on the long side, but price stability needs to present itself.

My long at 1311 got stopped out at 1243 which protected me from 400 more points of pain. What you are seeing here is REALITY. Markets retrace and when the pullbacks are dramatic, it shakes out the weak hands who have no structure, trading plan or risk management. I got stopped out, but like I explained in that report, the stop was wide, so you adjust for that in your sizing.

Also the wave count, (as much as the critics keep criticizing TA) served as a helpful hint that a broader correction was likely. I kept writing about that also. The question now is: what to do from here? Is the market going back to 500? What about all the hype and drama?

First, this retrace is normal and healthy. As a short term speculator, I don't care what triggered it because the wave count showed it was coming. Now my focus is how to capitalize on the members of the herd who are getting pushed out of their positions by their own ignorance. And that means I am looking to get long again, but only when the signs of stability reappear at the appropriate levels.

The first level to note is the 984 level which is the lower boundary of the reversal zone projected from the 1073 low. The fact that price has broken below with such conviction is a bearish sign. It points to the next support zone as a more likely place for the reversal process to unfold which puts the following point into perspective.

The 872 to 739 support zone is the .618 area of the recent bullish structure. Price has reacted to the 872 level which was projected weeks ago. Since the momentum is still bearish , it is reasonable for price to fall into this zone before finding stability as well which can come in the form of a double bottom or higher low formation.

The reversal process from here is likely to take time and when the market finally starts working its way higher, a reasonable target to LOCK in some profits is projected around the 1216 to 1304 resistance zone which is NOW the .618 area relevant to the current bearish swing. This process can take a few days to a week to unfold.

Also for the more aggressive, and longer time horizon investors, this is not a bad area to start accumulating some fractional positions. Without using margin, and placing limit order below the market without any stops, gives you the opportunity to get great prices while keeping your risk low. This averaging technique is effective when you do not use margin and control risk through sizing. As the market goes lower which can easily happen, you only feel a fraction of the pain, rather than magnified pain that comes with the use of margin. As this market finds stability over time, you keep adding small amounts. As long as your long term outlook is bullish , and you manage your risk with careful sizing, you can build a core position while fear forces the herd to unload their coins. So you are looking for an average price, rather than buying it all at one price (high risk). It's like a sale at Macy's.

In summary, markets correct. It is a normal process that occurs over and over again and it offers opportunity to those who understand the herd mentality and do not get sucked into the ignorance and hype which are rampant in these markets especially. There are no short term trade setups at the moment, but in terms of the bigger picture, this retrace can be considered a general buying opportunity in my opinion. This is why structuring your trading and investment process is so important. Without a framework to guide your decisions, you are more likely to react rather than anticipate.
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Comments

Tyvm for sharing your ideas.
My question: let's say we have 100 to invest (long term) and want to buy at N different price levels. How much % should we put on each of those N levels?
+3 Reply
Thank you Marc
+1 Reply
Thank you Marc for your insight. Always appreciated!
+1 Reply
Thanks Marc, always wise and informative.
+1 Reply
The knowledge you share with us is priceless! TNX !!
+1 Reply
Good analysis and wise words! Thanks!
+1 Reply
Great post. Thanks Marc.

I also read your book and enjoyed it!
+1 Reply
Thanks for your analysis and advice. I learn allot from your trades and more importantly your analytical and objective trading approach.
+1 Reply
Can you please update?
Reply
Thank you!
Reply
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