Charting in advance on longterm log charts can very easily lead to out-of-the-sky price targets. This is just an analysis of the price action on the log chart compared to the last bull market.
In a bull market, strong assets tend to move into log channels. The channel shown in green was 2016-2018. Also in this bull market many assets are trading in these log channels like RUNE, SNX, RPL or Link. What is interesting about the 2016-18 bull market is that the bottom of the channel as ETH reached the cycle top was spot on predicting the bear market bottom (as shown by the yellow arrows). While we often use the 200 Weekly SMA or the realized cap on BTC as the bottom, I will definitely keep an eye on this for ETH. Currently we have a 75% price drop from top to bottom if you would use this as a bottom indicator. I have drawn another third line which would indicate a price drop from top around 91%. (the top red line). Basically, the bull market channels should become thinner over time as volatility gradually decreases with the size of the market. Ich halte es allerdings für gut möglich dass wir den jetzigen channel nach oben ausbrechen könnten ähnlich wie wir das in der zweiten hälfte von 2017 das erste mal gesehen haben. However, I think it is quite possible that we could break out of the current channel to the upside similar to what we saw in the second half of 2017 for the first time (hence the top red line as a reference).
Since it is impossible to predict the exact tops and especially time frames, everything here is of course to be taken with a grain of salt and I'm just trying to write down my thoughts if we experience similar behavior as in 2017.
Basically as I described in a post from 2019 already for the first time, the cycles are extended within crypto. Here is not the bull/bear market phase meant directly but in particular the ratio of ETH/BTC. I have linked my old post on this. Since this was one of my basic theses when we started into this bull market I can well imagine that we will see a market top not towards the end of the year but a few months after. So it would continue to extend the ETH/BTC cycles in the same ratio.
Furthermore, it is of course not logical in the long run that the entire price action of ETH moves in one channel. The market cap would go infinite in the shortest time. In the example of BTC, we therefore see log regressions rather than price patterns in the long term.
In order to create a log regression, the resistance line of the entire price action from 2016 to the bull market top would have to be less steep than the current long term support line. The only instrument I can think of that could possibly be used to find a new resistance line are Fib Channels. Now I have drawn the intersections of the bull log channel with the fib channels and marked them as hammers. Thereupon a dashed line is drawn and thus the possible residence lines of the two bull market tops are drawn in.
The bottom of the bear market based on the 2017 price action would then be the bottom of the channel at the given time. But would have to break the support line of course to create a long term log reggresion.
JUST TO CLARIFY AGAIN THAT HERE IS HIGHLY SPECULATIVE AND I JUST LIKE TO PLAY AROUND WITH SUCH CHARTS. IT HAS NO FUNDAMENTAL DATA IN IT AND IS PURELY TA BASED ON A LOG CHART. ON THE LEFT SIDE YOU CAN SEE THE MARKETCAPS AND HOW ABSOURD THE CHART CAN BECOME UPWARDS. I CAN BE WRONG IN A VERY SHORT TIME AND BE LABELED AS MOONBOY. I'M JUST TRYING TO FIND COMPARISONS AND ILLUSTRATE THEM.
Nevertheless, in the long run I believe that we will see a smart contract settelment layer or layers with together higher Mcaps like the targeted GoldMcap for BTC.
In a bull market, strong assets tend to move into log channels. The channel shown in green was 2016-2018. Also in this bull market many assets are trading in these log channels like RUNE, SNX, RPL or Link. What is interesting about the 2016-18 bull market is that the bottom of the channel as ETH reached the cycle top was spot on predicting the bear market bottom (as shown by the yellow arrows). While we often use the 200 Weekly SMA or the realized cap on BTC as the bottom, I will definitely keep an eye on this for ETH. Currently we have a 75% price drop from top to bottom if you would use this as a bottom indicator. I have drawn another third line which would indicate a price drop from top around 91%. (the top red line). Basically, the bull market channels should become thinner over time as volatility gradually decreases with the size of the market. Ich halte es allerdings für gut möglich dass wir den jetzigen channel nach oben ausbrechen könnten ähnlich wie wir das in der zweiten hälfte von 2017 das erste mal gesehen haben. However, I think it is quite possible that we could break out of the current channel to the upside similar to what we saw in the second half of 2017 for the first time (hence the top red line as a reference).
Since it is impossible to predict the exact tops and especially time frames, everything here is of course to be taken with a grain of salt and I'm just trying to write down my thoughts if we experience similar behavior as in 2017.
Basically as I described in a post from 2019 already for the first time, the cycles are extended within crypto. Here is not the bull/bear market phase meant directly but in particular the ratio of ETH/BTC. I have linked my old post on this. Since this was one of my basic theses when we started into this bull market I can well imagine that we will see a market top not towards the end of the year but a few months after. So it would continue to extend the ETH/BTC cycles in the same ratio.
Furthermore, it is of course not logical in the long run that the entire price action of ETH moves in one channel. The market cap would go infinite in the shortest time. In the example of BTC, we therefore see log regressions rather than price patterns in the long term.
In order to create a log regression, the resistance line of the entire price action from 2016 to the bull market top would have to be less steep than the current long term support line. The only instrument I can think of that could possibly be used to find a new resistance line are Fib Channels. Now I have drawn the intersections of the bull log channel with the fib channels and marked them as hammers. Thereupon a dashed line is drawn and thus the possible residence lines of the two bull market tops are drawn in.
The bottom of the bear market based on the 2017 price action would then be the bottom of the channel at the given time. But would have to break the support line of course to create a long term log reggresion.
JUST TO CLARIFY AGAIN THAT HERE IS HIGHLY SPECULATIVE AND I JUST LIKE TO PLAY AROUND WITH SUCH CHARTS. IT HAS NO FUNDAMENTAL DATA IN IT AND IS PURELY TA BASED ON A LOG CHART. ON THE LEFT SIDE YOU CAN SEE THE MARKETCAPS AND HOW ABSOURD THE CHART CAN BECOME UPWARDS. I CAN BE WRONG IN A VERY SHORT TIME AND BE LABELED AS MOONBOY. I'M JUST TRYING TO FIND COMPARISONS AND ILLUSTRATE THEM.
Nevertheless, in the long run I believe that we will see a smart contract settelment layer or layers with together higher Mcaps like the targeted GoldMcap for BTC.
