TLDR: Volume ins't bullish and we are at long term resistance
The last couple of days have been very volatile and the end results still are ambiguous. BTCUSD stalled in a very obvious place and has a clear rejection wick and we may end up with a busted BARR bottom reversal. Another possibility is that this pump was a throw back on the descending triangle, which does affect the performance of the descending triangle, but still ends bearishly.
Ethereum is in a much worse position than bitcoin on a technical level, aside from being behind the last couple of days if you track ETHBTC. The main chart looks a little busy if you are not use to the VPVR but I will try and break things down, first with the trend lines and then the VPVR.
The top purple line at 360 is a major significant horizontal level. Has been for years. The move I have hoped for, but looks further and further away, is a bullish formation against that trendline, such as an accending triangle.
The rising purple line starts at the bottom of the bear market with the second point at the next higher low. This has been an important trend line for 11 months now with 5 tests as support or resistance. This has basically confirmed itself as a very important trend line that may have another couple of years of significant.
The main chart is also related to the log chart below, but with some different points of contact. We are still below the tend line and the wedge looks different. But we are still below the long term trend line an the wedge resistance is still holding.
Back to the main chart and the VPVR. There are 147 bars and the area between the two blue lines that go through the chart represent the Volume Area, where 68% of the volume action has occurred. I chose 147 bars because that gets me 100 bars in the value area and 68% is used as it is +/- 1 standard deviation about the red line, which is the point of control, the price with the most volume.
Price action has a habit of being drawn to the point of control, which is 135. Another successful trading strategy is to see price action to go "edge to edge" on the value area, or for price action to find support and resistance on the upper or lower value areas.
The OBV+ is just the on balance volume (default 20 periods) with EMAs to help simplify what is going on and look for typical crosses and divergences.
Now that is out of the way, the bearish details
Rejection at a break out attempt of the wedge
Rejection occured at the upper value area and the long term trend line
On Balance Volume has a fully bearish ordering of the EMAs
Going to the point of control is going to $135
Going Edge to Edge on the Value Area is going to $100
100 is the next spike in the VPVR
Below that, 80
A final look at BTCUSD our benchmark in the asset class shows a rejection at the baseline of the Bollinger band on the weekly chart, which is a rejection of the 20w SMA. When these happened in the past it was not unusual to go to the lower limit of the baseline.
The last couple of days have been very volatile and the end results still are ambiguous. BTCUSD stalled in a very obvious place and has a clear rejection wick and we may end up with a busted BARR bottom reversal. Another possibility is that this pump was a throw back on the descending triangle, which does affect the performance of the descending triangle, but still ends bearishly.
Ethereum is in a much worse position than bitcoin on a technical level, aside from being behind the last couple of days if you track ETHBTC. The main chart looks a little busy if you are not use to the VPVR but I will try and break things down, first with the trend lines and then the VPVR.
The top purple line at 360 is a major significant horizontal level. Has been for years. The move I have hoped for, but looks further and further away, is a bullish formation against that trendline, such as an accending triangle.
The rising purple line starts at the bottom of the bear market with the second point at the next higher low. This has been an important trend line for 11 months now with 5 tests as support or resistance. This has basically confirmed itself as a very important trend line that may have another couple of years of significant.
The main chart is also related to the log chart below, but with some different points of contact. We are still below the tend line and the wedge looks different. But we are still below the long term trend line an the wedge resistance is still holding.
Back to the main chart and the VPVR. There are 147 bars and the area between the two blue lines that go through the chart represent the Volume Area, where 68% of the volume action has occurred. I chose 147 bars because that gets me 100 bars in the value area and 68% is used as it is +/- 1 standard deviation about the red line, which is the point of control, the price with the most volume.
Price action has a habit of being drawn to the point of control, which is 135. Another successful trading strategy is to see price action to go "edge to edge" on the value area, or for price action to find support and resistance on the upper or lower value areas.
The OBV+ is just the on balance volume (default 20 periods) with EMAs to help simplify what is going on and look for typical crosses and divergences.
Now that is out of the way, the bearish details
Rejection at a break out attempt of the wedge
Rejection occured at the upper value area and the long term trend line
On Balance Volume has a fully bearish ordering of the EMAs
Going to the point of control is going to $135
Going Edge to Edge on the Value Area is going to $100
100 is the next spike in the VPVR
Below that, 80
A final look at BTCUSD our benchmark in the asset class shows a rejection at the baseline of the Bollinger band on the weekly chart, which is a rejection of the 20w SMA. When these happened in the past it was not unusual to go to the lower limit of the baseline.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
