The 320 level was the .382 of the recent swing and since price has taken it out without any hesitation, I interpret that as changing momentum. This does not mean I just jump in and buy. I never said 320 was a long trigger, it is just one piece of the puzzle that needs to fit before I can evaluate a long swing trade position. Now that 320 is broken, I am watching two support areas for a pull back and reversal. The 309 level which is now the .382 of the current swing and 292 to 281 area which is related to the .618 of the current swing. Keep in mind the 296 level is still in play as well. The new is the 346 to 367 zone which is related to the .618 of the swing. This area will serve as a target if I manage to get long in the low 300s or 290s.
The momentum may have dried up but the current price level is not a place to get long. In fact, if you take a look at my analysis on ETHBTC, the price is struggling at the corresponding that I wrote about in my previous report. This lack of follow through on ETHBTC is the same kind of price action that occurred before the market sold off. This emphasizes ever more the importance of the market proving itself by presenting a broader higher low off of one of the supports I just mentioned. If a more shallow higher low unfolds instead, I will consider it with a smaller position possibly.
If anything, the peak of the current move appears to be a lower high and it is slowing just under the .618 . That is why risk is high for longs at these levels and if some unexpected catalyst scares this market, price has more of a chance to revisit the 292 to 281 area or even the 250s.
Buying near the lows of this move is great, but reasonable expectations are in order. Until the new is cleared, we are more likely to see a range bound market in the near term, especially if ETHBTC cannot break the resistance that it is facing at the moment.
In summary, the momentum has run out of steam as proven by the 320 resistance break, but this market is not out of the clear. In order to prove that big picture strength is back and new highs are reasonable, price action will have to build a higher low formation within one of the support areas mentioned. IF price forms a lower high and pushes below the 309 support, then that would
again confirm momentum which can take price to the larger degree supports. The reason why I want to see a higher low is because that will remove the significance of the any structures since higher lows often lead to higher highs especially in an overall market.
Comments and questions welcome.