I'll be posting positions as I open them.
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I'm lowering my stop loss to $387. That's where the Builish 5-0 stops, with C being the point we just dropped from. It looks like we're working with fractals, the smaller pattern will complete at either the X-D or B-D line. The distance between B and C may need to be moved laterally, meaning it may take longer. However, while all the rest of the distance measurements are a range, the distance between C and D is a constant set at 5. This means that the price won't go below D for the bigger fractal. Using the same approach, I arrived at $387 for the fractal we're in now.
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If I'm correct, we'll be hugging the B-C line when looking at charts at the 4hr+ scale.
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Here's what I'm projecting in terms of the path so you get a clearer idea:
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The B-D length is a constant, not C-D. Just wanted to point out one more possibility for those planning on, or having already opened a short position. We could, in theory, turn this ship back around now or relatively soon, hit the A-C line, retrace back, then follow through to target C. If that were the case, we might not complete the 5-0 pattern. Instead, because of the bullish nature of the drive, we might break right through it. Right now, one of the reasons for projecting the retrace back to lower levels is the fractal nature of the crash. Previous attempts to break out of the downward channel have involved smaller fractal versions of the crash itself. I've been noticing a reversal of a sort in terms of the InvHS formations at smaller timeframes. Moving down from the crash, we created incomplete patterns with a short left shoulder and long right shoulder, with the right shoulder failing to breakout. In the last few days, that pattern has shifted and we are creating InvHS formations with a long left shoulder and smaller right ones. If we hit the intersection between the A-C line and the solid blue line, we might complete the downward slanting InvHS when we reach point C (with breakout since the solid blue line is the shoulder line), AND we would have created an upward slanting InvHS formation at the same time. Meaning we would be on our way to producing an inverse mirror image of the crash, pointing to a fast recovery back to previous levels.
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It appears that I should have set my stop loss at 380, where the solid black support line is. Thankfully I was able to manually cancel the stop loss, but if it does dip past the black line, I'll have no choice but to close the position and take a loss.
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We have some positive developments though. With the push down to 380, we've created an almost perfectly straight neckline of a InvHS formation. This suggests, very strongly I think, that the recovery we're about to see will be a mirror image of the crash, both in terms of timing and intensity. It also gives us a better measure of what to expect. When in doubt, check what happened in the past and project the inverse.
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Bearish butterfly has failed and that failure in turn created a Bullish one.
Bearish butterfly has failed and that failure in turn created a Bullish one.
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I had to manually lower my stop loss a few times, but we're on track to hit our target. Once we do, we'll see a few days minimum of sideways action, creating a symmetrical triangle, which in turn will turn out to be the pennant of a giant bull flag. The pole of which, we are forming now.
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