There was a nice move from the 286 (that I wrote about previously) back up to 315. I haven't looked, but I am willing to bet there is a lot of chatter about "ETH Going To Moon!", and it's not happening. There is no moon, instead, there is a large just above at the 320 to 350 area (.618 of recent swing). This market has not even made it into that zone, and instead is in the process of forming a at a previous turning point which can solidify into a .
305 is the current low of the (but that number can be lower by the close of the candle). When this period closes, and the is still present, what ever low is in place at that time will be the short trigger. Then IF the market breaks 280, that will confirm the which would signal further weakness ahead. No moon.
Just like BTC , the argument keeps building: Price has not even entered the major of 320 to 350, price has possibly formed a at 315, possible large time frame forming, plus the 315 level is a lower high compared to 400. If I were shorting these markets, these would be the signs that I would need to see. The key is in the confirmations, just like in BTC , 4104 needs to be taken out, in this market its 280. The appearance of a like a or a alone is not enough. Confirmation implies the selling is significant and is likely to continue.
If 280 breaks, there is a .618 (of recent swing) at the 276 to 266 area where price may hesitate, but coming from a and lower high, it is reasonable to expect supports like this to break, which can take price back to the 243 to 223 (.618 of entire swing). Like I have written about previously, often the signs are in place before the market is surprised with significant selling and there are many signs at the moment. It is just a matter of a catalyst.
The 243 to 223 area is an overlapping and if price manages to retest, I am curious to see how it reacts since a C Wave would be in progress which can complete much lower. Any failed lows in this zone can possibly lead to a large or higher low formation, and that is something I would be interested in. Keep in mind this process can take time (days). According to my extension measurement, Wave 3 of C (which should be the next wave) is likely to complete around the 267 area (1.618), while Wave 5 of C can push to the 239 (2.618) area (this is based on the proportion of the of the price structure). This is just a possible scenario and is not a consideration until the triggers I mentioned earlier are in effect.
In summary, these markets have been very slow in terms of swing trading, but signs are beginning to accumulate. I am using this information to justify staying flat since I do not short these markets. There is plenty of action on the smaller time frames which I encourage everyone to participate in if you have the time and well thought out plan to guide you. My analysis can still serve as an overall context, especially for the levels. My plan is to stay out of any swing trades until this market presents a situation that shows clear potential to the upside for a reasonable amount of risk.
Questions and comments welcome.
Thanks for the analysis and have a good weekend.