Analysis of Ethereum (18 months)

I've studied the bullish hook reversals which occur at the bottom of a downtrend for Ethereum to determine the highest probable outcome of a new local maximum. The data I used was an Ethereum daily chart spanning from August 8th 2016 to March 29, 2018. The two variables I considered were duration of time for the downtrend to reach a reversal and the Fibonacci retracement of that reversal.

I filtered the data by Fibonacci >=0.382 and duration >= 7 days to determine the highest probable reversal height as a function of time and frequency of recurring events. The results are as follows: The reversal approached the 0.382 (41%), 0.786 (32%), 0.618 (16%), 2.618 (7%), and 1.618 (4%).

Unfiltered data suggests the reversal will approach the 0.618 (42%), 0.786 (37%), 1.618 (7%), 4.236 (14%).

This is not financial advice to buy or sell, this is for educational purposes.

Comment:

The reversal on the March 30th approached the .382 before descending back down to a slightly lower, low. This is not uncharacteristic. The data shows that this pattern has repeated 8 times. The pattern is roughly described as ascending towards to 0.382, descending to 0.236 or lower, back to the 0.382, then ascending to higher highs (relative to the reference point, NOT to ATH!!).

With that being said I filtered the most recent data by >= 7 days.

The base rates are as follows: 0.382 (32%), 0.786(32%), 0.618 (16%), 2.618(11%), 0.236 (5%), 1.618 (5%). The base rates were calculated by dividing the frequency of recurring reversal heights by the total amount of data points. 19 data points were used all with durations of time >= 7 days.

This is not financial advice to buy or sell, this is for educational purposes.

Comment:

As I said last week this pattern has happened numerous times...yet again Ethereum has retraced to the 0.786 after oscillating between the 0.382 and trough. Profits have been taken and I anticipate a reversal towards $400.

*There is low probability (~16%) Ethereum will continue to ascend towards the 1.618 or above.