Expecting ETHUSD Rally to continue (Updated chart view)
Posting an updated view of my chart for ETHUSD to be used as part of my last post. I have added additional comments and analysis on the chart showing the signals I look for.
I look for signals that occur in the "OBV MA Crossover" (tool appears as 'vb_VF2EMA' on my chart under the candle chart). On a 4hr chart, when I see spikes to the downside (there the dark gray bars under the light gray bars), I look for patterns such as a bigger downward spike that occurs afterwards. I then measure the distance between them and see if the pattern is consistent with other occurrences. I then mark these "Warning signals" on my chart.
So in this case, the pattern is when the small gray bar in the "OBV MA Crossover" tool reaches the dotted purple line I labeled "Minor Sell-Off Signal Zone", I then count 11-bars to the right and draw a red box to indicate "WHEN" the expected move to the downside to test the yellow support line in the candle-stick chart (which is drawn from significant lows on the daily). I also draw a vertical line on the same spot in the candle-stick chart to see "WHAT" price it crosses on the support line. I then know "HOW" much ETHUSD will fall to after a rally to the upside (if there was a rally because anything is possible).
After that, I watch what happens and update my chart if the signals change. I keep an eye out on the "OBV MA Crossover" tool and I also use the Viper Volume Profiler to give a visual of where support is at and where it isn't. I always change higher time frames to confirm a trend or to ignore it as noise. I also keep a trade journal and if I make a mistake, I document it and then try to learn from it.
My analysis is my own. I don't base my trades solely on the opinion on others until I can confirm it in my own analysis. I hope you are doing the same as well.
Good luck, and happy trading!
I look for signals that occur in the "OBV MA Crossover" (tool appears as 'vb_VF2EMA' on my chart under the candle chart). On a 4hr chart, when I see spikes to the downside (there the dark gray bars under the light gray bars), I look for patterns such as a bigger downward spike that occurs afterwards. I then measure the distance between them and see if the pattern is consistent with other occurrences. I then mark these "Warning signals" on my chart.
So in this case, the pattern is when the small gray bar in the "OBV MA Crossover" tool reaches the dotted purple line I labeled "Minor Sell-Off Signal Zone", I then count 11-bars to the right and draw a red box to indicate "WHEN" the expected move to the downside to test the yellow support line in the candle-stick chart (which is drawn from significant lows on the daily). I also draw a vertical line on the same spot in the candle-stick chart to see "WHAT" price it crosses on the support line. I then know "HOW" much ETHUSD will fall to after a rally to the upside (if there was a rally because anything is possible).
After that, I watch what happens and update my chart if the signals change. I keep an eye out on the "OBV MA Crossover" tool and I also use the Viper Volume Profiler to give a visual of where support is at and where it isn't. I always change higher time frames to confirm a trend or to ignore it as noise. I also keep a trade journal and if I make a mistake, I document it and then try to learn from it.
My analysis is my own. I don't base my trades solely on the opinion on others until I can confirm it in my own analysis. I hope you are doing the same as well.
Good luck, and happy trading!
Trade closed: stop reached:
I got stopped out when ETHUSD went below 1925. My position closed.(glad I had one!) Waiting to see if there is a further drop to support @ 1765-1816. Otherwise, it could drop to support on the daily time frame of 700-800. On the weekly time frame, a cup-and-handle pattern is evident which supports the drop to the 700-800 range. This would be a great place to re-enter ETHUSD as I am still bullish long-term.