Recap: Ethereum entered May extremely bullish. First it resisted deeper corrections when BTC and the TOTAL2 market corrected in April, then it came flying out of the gate towards the mid/end of April, growing over 70% to today. Quite exciting.
Looking back we saw two consolidation periods where MMs appear to accumulate before a slow growth from 26 April until early May when we saw another consolidation period before breaking out of a bull pennant on 05 May and closing into the 1/1 on Gan Fan, signaling a bullish breakout and continuation of the macro bull trend.
Whats Next?: Estimating price targets here is dicey when a coin is in price exploration, but taking the size of flag on the penant, and the size of the large end of the pennant as two ranges to measure potential breakout against, we arrive at two long targets. Keep in mind that these breakouts will not be a long green candle to the target, we'll follow the waves up and down towards those targets:
If we can reach 4k, I'd look for retracement to around 3.5-3.6k, which lines up with the top range of our highest value area currently, and also aligns almost perfectly between 38% and 50% retracement on the fibonacci from the 04 May breakout/pattern, and around the 20% retracement against the breakout two weeks ago. If we fall below there or only reach 3.6k before retracing, the next support to retest is around 3k which aligns with the ~40% retracement on the two week breakout/pattern.
This will be invalidated if we fail to reach the long targets, in that case I'd look for support near the light green points of control I highlighted. Also with how bullish ETH has been, it can't be ruled out that it simply breaks past these targets, the Stoch RSI looks extremely healthy on the 4 hour chart and is still (barely) emerging from oversold territory around 22, and MACD is trending extremely bullish but lower volume.
Note: Alternatively we could also see a consolidation period, and if we fall to retest the area around 31.5and bounce, which is a brief POC that supported the last consolidation pattern a few days ago. Considering the bullish sentiment around ETH I wouldn't be surprised to see MM accumulate a little more before the next leg up.
Remember as always this is just my brainstorming and not financial advice. Good luck.
Looking back we saw two consolidation periods where MMs appear to accumulate before a slow growth from 26 April until early May when we saw another consolidation period before breaking out of a bull pennant on 05 May and closing into the 1/1 on Gan Fan, signaling a bullish breakout and continuation of the macro bull trend.
Whats Next?: Estimating price targets here is dicey when a coin is in price exploration, but taking the size of flag on the penant, and the size of the large end of the pennant as two ranges to measure potential breakout against, we arrive at two long targets. Keep in mind that these breakouts will not be a long green candle to the target, we'll follow the waves up and down towards those targets:
- ~3,670 USD
- ~4,000 USD
If we can reach 4k, I'd look for retracement to around 3.5-3.6k, which lines up with the top range of our highest value area currently, and also aligns almost perfectly between 38% and 50% retracement on the fibonacci from the 04 May breakout/pattern, and around the 20% retracement against the breakout two weeks ago. If we fall below there or only reach 3.6k before retracing, the next support to retest is around 3k which aligns with the ~40% retracement on the two week breakout/pattern.
This will be invalidated if we fail to reach the long targets, in that case I'd look for support near the light green points of control I highlighted. Also with how bullish ETH has been, it can't be ruled out that it simply breaks past these targets, the Stoch RSI looks extremely healthy on the 4 hour chart and is still (barely) emerging from oversold territory around 22, and MACD is trending extremely bullish but lower volume.
Note: Alternatively we could also see a consolidation period, and if we fall to retest the area around 31.5and bounce, which is a brief POC that supported the last consolidation pattern a few days ago. Considering the bullish sentiment around ETH I wouldn't be surprised to see MM accumulate a little more before the next leg up.
Remember as always this is just my brainstorming and not financial advice. Good luck.