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I love Ethereum and the possibilities that it brings to our future world. But in this quick analysis, I just want to point out that the last time ETH touched its long-term MA, it didn't reject it, it actually fell through it. Of course past performance is not an indicator of future performance, but humans and particularly traders are very habitual in nature.
The main point I want to show here is that if the price gets down near the 150 MA, then please pay attention to price movements as it could indeed fall further. The last time that the price fell through the 150 MA (Sept 2018), the percentage drop from from high to low was 94% over ~340 days. While a +90% drop for ETH seems extreme, we have ALREADY had a 48% drop and there is a possibility in the market that Bitcoin has further to drop which would most likely impact the price of ETH. Thus we could easily see ETH decrease another 25% more from its peak to the 150 MA which would put its price around $1400.
And if the past is any indicator, it would fall through the 150 MA instead of rejecting it.
My purpose in showing this data is not to be an ETH bear, but to show some clear market facts to help you make some informed future decisions. If you are not already in ETH, then maybe you should consider waiting as more indictors indicate a continued decrease in the ETH price over the long-term.
Short-term, we may indeed see a rally, but I don't think the macro economy is ready nor strong enough for a sustained market reversal to a long-term bear market yet.
As a side note, I had to use 150 MA instead of the standard 200 MA because the 150 MA gave more history as ETH is relatively new.
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Namaste
Please consider following me for the latest market updates and mid and long-term Long / Short calls. Let's get to the chart!
I love Ethereum and the possibilities that it brings to our future world. But in this quick analysis, I just want to point out that the last time ETH touched its long-term MA, it didn't reject it, it actually fell through it. Of course past performance is not an indicator of future performance, but humans and particularly traders are very habitual in nature.
The main point I want to show here is that if the price gets down near the 150 MA, then please pay attention to price movements as it could indeed fall further. The last time that the price fell through the 150 MA (Sept 2018), the percentage drop from from high to low was 94% over ~340 days. While a +90% drop for ETH seems extreme, we have ALREADY had a 48% drop and there is a possibility in the market that Bitcoin has further to drop which would most likely impact the price of ETH. Thus we could easily see ETH decrease another 25% more from its peak to the 150 MA which would put its price around $1400.
And if the past is any indicator, it would fall through the 150 MA instead of rejecting it.
My purpose in showing this data is not to be an ETH bear, but to show some clear market facts to help you make some informed future decisions. If you are not already in ETH, then maybe you should consider waiting as more indictors indicate a continued decrease in the ETH price over the long-term.
Short-term, we may indeed see a rally, but I don't think the macro economy is ready nor strong enough for a sustained market reversal to a long-term bear market yet.
As a side note, I had to use 150 MA instead of the standard 200 MA because the 150 MA gave more history as ETH is relatively new.
If you liked this content, please consider subscribing and giving it a Thumbs Up. If you have any feedback or suggestions, please leave a comment below as I answer each comment.
Namaste
