This analysis uses a newly modified version of my primary chart, and is meant to update the targets from the previous idea. The main differences on the chart are the traditional yearly pivots, in addition to the fibs, which have been switched to a log scale. Also, a zoomed out perspective is necessary now that we are in price discovery, with new ATHs being printed as I write this.
In general, my strategy focuses on a modified MACD using Volume Weighted Moving Averages. I prefer VWMAs because I find it the easiest way to analyze what volume is doing in combination with price.
VWMAs are represented on my chart by the yellow MA "rainbow," but also by the histogram at the bottom, which plots the fast/slow differences (in addition to the difference SMA). The trend is indicated by the VWMA cross direction.
To determine support and resistance levels, I have applied a log based fib extension, on the low in 2016 to the high/low in 2018. Similarly, there is a fib channel applied to the low in 2016, to the high in 2018 and low in 2020. These anchor points are definitely arbitrary, however the levels match up quite nicely for the previous years and have held true so far in 2021. Finally, I have added the traditional yearly pivots after the bounce at 2550, as they showed strong confluence with that level and predicted the retrace to the R4 levels.
Now that we are closing above the R5 level at 2550, I am looking immediately for resistance at 2019 R4/R5 levels 2800 and 3300. Above that is the fib channel at 3800. For support levels, we have the fib channel at 2300, VWMA at 2160 and R4 at 2070.
In general, my strategy focuses on a modified MACD using Volume Weighted Moving Averages. I prefer VWMAs because I find it the easiest way to analyze what volume is doing in combination with price.
VWMAs are represented on my chart by the yellow MA "rainbow," but also by the histogram at the bottom, which plots the fast/slow differences (in addition to the difference SMA). The trend is indicated by the VWMA cross direction.
To determine support and resistance levels, I have applied a log based fib extension, on the low in 2016 to the high/low in 2018. Similarly, there is a fib channel applied to the low in 2016, to the high in 2018 and low in 2020. These anchor points are definitely arbitrary, however the levels match up quite nicely for the previous years and have held true so far in 2021. Finally, I have added the traditional yearly pivots after the bounce at 2550, as they showed strong confluence with that level and predicted the retrace to the R4 levels.
Now that we are closing above the R5 level at 2550, I am looking immediately for resistance at 2019 R4/R5 levels 2800 and 3300. Above that is the fib channel at 3800. For support levels, we have the fib channel at 2300, VWMA at 2160 and R4 at 2070.
Comment:
2800 and 3300 targets achieved, look for 3800 upside and previous resistances as support!