As I wrote about a few reports ago, 320 was a significant break and maybe now you can see why. If you look at a weekly chart, it is basically the low of the previous week's like candle. If you read my reports at that time, I describe the bearishness of the signal, and why I would not even think about buying. The current weekly candle closes today and if it closes the way it looks now which is near the low, especially with no wick, then this signals lower prices are still more likely.
At the moment I am watching for a retest of the 260 support to see if price can stabilize. A break below opens the possibility to retest the 230 which is related to the .618 of the recent structure. What adds to this argument further is the lower high structure at 340 (which I talked about in previous reports), the wave count, and the ETHBTC chart which offered plenty of warning ahead of this momentum.
In terms of , I am counting the previous 5 wave structure as a 1 of a larger 3. The current corrective legs are part of the subdegree Wave 2 which implies that a larger Wave 3 is likely to follow once this correction completes. Buying too early in anticipation of subdegree Wave 3 of 3 is extremely risky because Wave 2's can be deep corrections. I would rather wait until the bottom is in place and buy at slightly higher prices because at least I will be able to evaluate my risk more effectively than I can at the moment.
Also pay attention to the ETHBTC market because it is testing the .06562 triple bottom area. If that level breaks, that will also add to the momentum that can take this market to the lower supports.
In summary, my plan is to let the momentum play out and wait for stability at one of the lower support levels before I do anything else. Right now in order for me to get long, I need to see momentum return which means price needs to show evidence of a reversal ALONG WITH a change in momentum. If price revisits 260 or lower, that doesn't mean I will get that low price. When momentum changes, prices will have to be higher in order to confirm the buyers are back. Keep in mind these evaluations are short term in scope and if you plan to hold for more than a few weeks, or months, then you can start building a position at any low, just make sure to have a very well defined investment plan and don't get too big too fast. The momentum will return and when it does, the market will provide the proof. Until then, I wait.
Comments and questions welcome.
Can't tell you how many times in the past week I wanted to pull the trigger at a "low" price, then remembered your words of patient wisdom.
Now if I could only get you to chart Coinbase instead... C: