ETH / USD had broken out of the wedge to the bottom, making a rush move to the lower limit of the descending trend channel, breaking it, breaking also the support at 281$ (fib retracement 0). On this price-level the bears went away and the bulls returned. Actually we see a fight around the important fib retracement. If the bulls win, ETH will reenter the last trend channel. This gives hope that the price rises up to the next swing trend line at ~ 340$, aprrox half the way to the upper limit of the trend channel.
As ETH has a relative high correlation to BTC and Bitcoin also has a good run (temporarily) this scenario isn´t too speculative. ETH follows the moves of BTC with some delay and sometimes with less volatility.
For BTC I expect a turning (to negative) within the next hours / days, and ETH would do the same some time later.
In EW one can see an ABC-correction and I´m not sure if we already have seen point C at 270$. It´s still possible - and with the next negative move of BTC also probable - that ETH would test the level a second time or even to fall below. (see rectangle).
So we ´ve got two scenarios for the near future:
a)
EW-corrective wave already finished; then ETH shouldn`t fall beyond 280$ and in the longer run cross the trend channel to the upper limit (actually at 380$)
b)
EW-corrective wave will be finished in the next time; then ETH will form a new low (rectangle) before entering the motive wave. (I´ve drawn this scenario with green arrows).
Perhaps we´ll see a better second half of the year - with rising prices. This would correspond to the stock-markets, where I expect some turbulences in the second half. The smart money will leave, taking the gains and searching for new investments. And I think they won´t find it only in bonds, raw materials or precious metals, but also in crypto currencies. We´ll see it with volume coming back.
Let´s hope it.
As ETH has a relative high correlation to BTC and Bitcoin also has a good run (temporarily) this scenario isn´t too speculative. ETH follows the moves of BTC with some delay and sometimes with less volatility.
For BTC I expect a turning (to negative) within the next hours / days, and ETH would do the same some time later.
In EW one can see an ABC-correction and I´m not sure if we already have seen point C at 270$. It´s still possible - and with the next negative move of BTC also probable - that ETH would test the level a second time or even to fall below. (see rectangle).
So we ´ve got two scenarios for the near future:
a)
EW-corrective wave already finished; then ETH shouldn`t fall beyond 280$ and in the longer run cross the trend channel to the upper limit (actually at 380$)
b)
EW-corrective wave will be finished in the next time; then ETH will form a new low (rectangle) before entering the motive wave. (I´ve drawn this scenario with green arrows).
Perhaps we´ll see a better second half of the year - with rising prices. This would correspond to the stock-markets, where I expect some turbulences in the second half. The smart money will leave, taking the gains and searching for new investments. And I think they won´t find it only in bonds, raw materials or precious metals, but also in crypto currencies. We´ll see it with volume coming back.
Let´s hope it.
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