Is this a breakout or a time for a big retracement?
I am personally of the mind that for this bull market to continue as best it can, we need a healthy retracement of at least ~30-50%.
The gains over the last 6 months are unsustainable and there is a never-before-seen amount of FOMOing and NEWBIES to the crypto market.
Looking at FA data, all the big boys are not buying ETH above 2k and BTC above 60k. Most of them accumulate in the low 50ks (or lower) on BTC and top out around 1800 on ETH.
In addition to this, I see very little miners selling right now. Most likely they are covering costs and accumulating as well, though this could change drastically at any minute.
Another indicator I'm considering is that massive volume of newbies in the crypto space - including both retail, and entities like pension funds, small investment vehicles, etc.
These are bigger than your normal retail user, but they still only count for hundreds, at most thousands of a single retailer - and are effectively just a "group" of more retail users. Same mentality, same cluelessness about crypto markets still.
Finally, there is always a big retracement of the overall bull run somewhere in the middle of it, which I believe we are in. This bull market is longer than previous ones, so I'm expecting big dips to occur between now and June. From May/June/July, whenever the big dip happens, we're going to see some really astronomical numbers, and I have all my fiat and stablecoins ready to go.
Right now is not the best time to buy IMHO - we are at ATH - never buy the top.
ETH @ 900 to 1500 is a good buy zone prior to the pump towards 3600.
BTC @ 49k to 54k prior to 75k pump.
I could be wrong here simply because of the sheer amount of FOMO from new users, but I dont see big boys buying at these levels.
However, as TA goes:
The OBV, STOCH, RSI = all very overbought.
Divergences showing bearish divs all across the last few months charts.
We are well above 10, 20, 50 SMAs - and crypto always needs to cool off and come back down to touch the SMAs eventually.
We have seen so many TD9 sell signals (which are usual during bull markets, but eventually they do kick in and trigger sell offs), and no TD9 buy signals. This means momentum can only keep up, if new money is constantly pouring in to provide that momentum. Yes the market cap is $2.2T right now and increasing - but its not increasing as fast as some of these major coins are.... which is itself a bearish divergence in the overall market. (It means luiqidity is draining from altcoins to pump into major coins)
Finally, I personally hope this bull market continues its healthy ascent to numbers beyond what any of us are even targetting - and a healthy pullback in the next 1-2 month period would do exactly that.
A bull market dump like we saw in 2017 is NOT ideal, as then the whole market dumps and is in a bear market for years before the next cycle.
I definitely prefer we dont revisit that....
I am personally of the mind that for this bull market to continue as best it can, we need a healthy retracement of at least ~30-50%.
The gains over the last 6 months are unsustainable and there is a never-before-seen amount of FOMOing and NEWBIES to the crypto market.
Looking at FA data, all the big boys are not buying ETH above 2k and BTC above 60k. Most of them accumulate in the low 50ks (or lower) on BTC and top out around 1800 on ETH.
In addition to this, I see very little miners selling right now. Most likely they are covering costs and accumulating as well, though this could change drastically at any minute.
Another indicator I'm considering is that massive volume of newbies in the crypto space - including both retail, and entities like pension funds, small investment vehicles, etc.
These are bigger than your normal retail user, but they still only count for hundreds, at most thousands of a single retailer - and are effectively just a "group" of more retail users. Same mentality, same cluelessness about crypto markets still.
Finally, there is always a big retracement of the overall bull run somewhere in the middle of it, which I believe we are in. This bull market is longer than previous ones, so I'm expecting big dips to occur between now and June. From May/June/July, whenever the big dip happens, we're going to see some really astronomical numbers, and I have all my fiat and stablecoins ready to go.
Right now is not the best time to buy IMHO - we are at ATH - never buy the top.
ETH @ 900 to 1500 is a good buy zone prior to the pump towards 3600.
BTC @ 49k to 54k prior to 75k pump.
I could be wrong here simply because of the sheer amount of FOMO from new users, but I dont see big boys buying at these levels.
However, as TA goes:
The OBV, STOCH, RSI = all very overbought.
Divergences showing bearish divs all across the last few months charts.
We are well above 10, 20, 50 SMAs - and crypto always needs to cool off and come back down to touch the SMAs eventually.
We have seen so many TD9 sell signals (which are usual during bull markets, but eventually they do kick in and trigger sell offs), and no TD9 buy signals. This means momentum can only keep up, if new money is constantly pouring in to provide that momentum. Yes the market cap is $2.2T right now and increasing - but its not increasing as fast as some of these major coins are.... which is itself a bearish divergence in the overall market. (It means luiqidity is draining from altcoins to pump into major coins)
Finally, I personally hope this bull market continues its healthy ascent to numbers beyond what any of us are even targetting - and a healthy pullback in the next 1-2 month period would do exactly that.
A bull market dump like we saw in 2017 is NOT ideal, as then the whole market dumps and is in a bear market for years before the next cycle.
I definitely prefer we dont revisit that....