ETHUSD - where is the bottom?

Jul 20, 2021

Before you read, this is not a prediction - just a possibility.

The "never gonna happen" people probably haven't traded markets long enough to know there's no such thing as never gonna happen in the market, let alone in crypto.

So this is a look at the quarterly chart and what I'd view as the "Armageddon scenario" where BTC retests 15-12k (yes it can...) Just take a look at the weekly with a 200 week moving average applied. That zone would be a major buy if it gets there.


It ain't that crazy to retest that zone, is it? But again, not saying it will. Just pointing out that it can and still be in a healthy uptrend.

I am a long term super bull in crypto and have been since 2015. Nothing's changed, and if price breaks down another 50% from here that still won't change. Because I am bullish over the next 10 years +, it's important to have the birds eye view and see what the possible crash prices could be to prepare new buys.

Zooming into ETH on the weekly chart, we can see *how* this could look if the next major support doesn't hold (which looks like anywhere between $1400 - $1500).


This is all pretty deja vu... In 2018 I posted "where to find the bottom in Bitcoin". You could read what my thought process was in the post below:

Sentiment was the same - lots of denial and disbelief on the way down. When the train finally goes, it'll leave as many as it can behind. Welcome to markets. You learn that the hard way.

Third reminder. I don't have a clue where it bottoms just like anyone else. But it's a good time to create a shopping list of your favorite projects and find where the most volume traded in the last year and a half. Set buy limits at zones you wouldn't believe could hit, and maybe they do.

GL

Aug 11, 2021

Note

The irony is this post probably marked the bottom to the day, and if not a bottom, obviously a major low.

There's a few lessons in that:

1) Always watch for Armageddon scenario posts like these to take the other side of the trade. It's often a signal of sentiment being at an extreme. In this case, ETH/crypto was on the edge of breaking down, but it didn't - it did the exact opposite.

2) Whenever you see a trade where the technicals indicate a potential major breakdown or major breakout, and it doesn't... the market you're watching tends to move in extreme to the other side.

For example - let's say you see a market about to breakout and it's the best looking pattern you've seen in a while, but instead, it hits your stop and keeps going lower. You realize shorting would have been the better play. Same goes in reverse. If you see a possible breakdown but the market doesn't break, buying was the better play. This is why false moves tend to be some of the best trades and you could develop a strategy entirely based on false moves.

3) Understanding time-frame on a trade is extremely important. So if you're watching a monthly or quarterly chart and it "looks" like something will happen, it does not mean it will - that is why you always hear "wait for the close." This applies to every time-frame - whether you're trading on the hourly or daily, the price action before the close of the candle/bar is often deceiving. This is something you cannot backtest, because when you look at price history all you see is the close, rather than the challenges from price deception in *real time* before the close of the time frame you're trading.