Here I'm presenting a likely scenario moving forward for eth in the short term
What we are seeing play out is a complex double-three combination correction, composed of an initial regular flat accompanied by a zigzag (estimation)
The regular flat is confirmed by its 3-3-5 swing motion following a 0.9 retracement of (A) & then a 0.618 retracement of (B). Double three confirmation is found by the current rally's swing when hitting the 0.854 retracement of (W)
Bitcoin may be on a slightly different path due to it exercising a running flat, but due to correlation both assets are due a similar outcome
Current price action IMO is complete exuberance & any attempt at forecasting carries a risk of failing to unfold
Most people are referring to this rally as a cycle, however when charting the past year's price action I cannot find any sufficient fibonacci retracement for all potential waves
Furthermore, the covid correction caused a breaking of the wave 2 to wave 4 trendline which can be found in bitcoin's long term chart (search ticker BLX), rendering the previous impulse in 2019 as invalid along with calling the whole cycle into question - all markets are reflecting this too
Because of the lack of retracement, I am reluctant to call this rally a bubble & am cautious for future
Keep attention focused on bitcoin's correlation to major indices, as well as gold & the dollar index. Correlation is switching consistently to whatever provokes a bullish move - even the dollar surprisingly
It seems this run only took off drastically when gold entered a corrective wave which it is now coming out of - precisely the same as what we are seeing in the stock markets
My advice:
Play it safe, take profits, and avoid risk when possible - an inevitable severe recession is in the works as a repercussion of this pandemic, don't leave yourself short of capital
What we are seeing play out is a complex double-three combination correction, composed of an initial regular flat accompanied by a zigzag (estimation)
The regular flat is confirmed by its 3-3-5 swing motion following a 0.9 retracement of (A) & then a 0.618 retracement of (B). Double three confirmation is found by the current rally's swing when hitting the 0.854 retracement of (W)
Bitcoin may be on a slightly different path due to it exercising a running flat, but due to correlation both assets are due a similar outcome
Current price action IMO is complete exuberance & any attempt at forecasting carries a risk of failing to unfold
Most people are referring to this rally as a cycle, however when charting the past year's price action I cannot find any sufficient fibonacci retracement for all potential waves
Furthermore, the covid correction caused a breaking of the wave 2 to wave 4 trendline which can be found in bitcoin's long term chart (search ticker BLX), rendering the previous impulse in 2019 as invalid along with calling the whole cycle into question - all markets are reflecting this too
Because of the lack of retracement, I am reluctant to call this rally a bubble & am cautious for future
Keep attention focused on bitcoin's correlation to major indices, as well as gold & the dollar index. Correlation is switching consistently to whatever provokes a bullish move - even the dollar surprisingly
It seems this run only took off drastically when gold entered a corrective wave which it is now coming out of - precisely the same as what we are seeing in the stock markets
My advice:
Play it safe, take profits, and avoid risk when possible - an inevitable severe recession is in the works as a repercussion of this pandemic, don't leave yourself short of capital