botje11

ETH Bear Flag vs bullish Channel

BITMEX:ETHUSD   ETHUSD Perpetual Futures Contract
On the left, at first sight it looks very bad for ETH', with that Feb dump and what looks like a big bear flag that has been formed the past month. But when zooming in a bit, we can see what looks like a real channel, where the price is moving inside of. Even at the break of that channel 2 days ago, we saw some volume increase and a decent drop as well, but not really what we are used to seeing from ETH'. Normally the moves are much bigger on the upside and downside. Just as the rest like BTC' and LTC', just not seeing anything obvious at this point.

While i am writing this, looks like a breakout of that triangle (or double bottom ) is about to happen. The target of this formation, is simply the high of the channel. So even if it breaks up, it would not change anything of the current channels. I think only a good increase in volume together with a break of the 136/137, might be a short/mid term change of the whole picture.

Assuming the bear flag on the left is real as well, it would mean that even if we move up now towards the 136ish, it could still simply be a retest before a big drop happens. That's why i mentioned above, bulls would need to be strong in volume and speed, otherwise the bears will simply take over again.

Long term, the 124ish seems to be a big support level for ETH'. So if that one breaks, we will very likely be headed towards the 100ish again. Upside potential is limited at the moment, because the past month or so it seems like there are no real ETH bulls left. Volume has been dropping the whole month now, even during the moves up. If that doesn't change, the movement up will be limited.

As i am writing this, it broke up already, so we should see it getting close to 135.5/136 quickly now. Bitcoin' also broke the 3920 and is trying to fight off the bear flag it has been moving inside of the past 36 hours.





Previous analysis:
Comment: ETH is back inside that bear flag, which is a bullish sign. But would need a daily close for it to be real. So as i have shown on the right, we should stay above that former resistance zone around 137, making a bull flag (or not). Volumes are okay today, but not overwhelming, so still some risk to it all.

The 140 is most likely still a big resistance for ETH, so that is the next level to break and mid term think the 144/148 is the last level up to 160ish. But it won't all happen if the bulls can't hold that red zone on the right.

Comment: Not really liking the movement since yesterday. Nothing bad happening at the moment, still following that blue line as a possible bull flag. Just not liking the volume picture that much so far. I will try to make a new analysis tomorrow. For now, it is important that it doesn't drop below that support line of the flag. If it stays stable, it can all still play out.

Comment: So eventually it followed the blue line to point again again. Was some hesitation in my previous update but the 137 held perfectly as well as that flag. Now we can expect a bigger correction to happen, assuming Bitcoin will drop some more. I will try to make a new analysis today.

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thank you botje for this nice update:)
+1 Reply
botje11 no_name2
@no_name2, Your welcome :)
+2 Reply
Interesting how quickly we pumped outta the channel. You think the whales want to keep it in this range and accumulate off the 5-10% pumps?
Reply
botje11 DJ-Jeffy-J
@DJ-Jeffy-J, Yes it is, this jump up is convincing and strong, so there is potential if they can create a good bull flag from now on
+1 Reply
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