ETH:USD Long Entry

Yesterday’s analysis: Viewing ETH as one leg behind BTC and expecting a bounce retest the top. Watching ETH short sellers pull back from ATH levels. Seeing support from hyperwave and higher low.
Patterns: Triangle, downtrend, higher low
Horizontal support and resistance: R - $455 S - $445 and $434
ETHUSDSHORTS: Broke out of continuation triangle. Now back inside of it and breaking down support. Fall to 17,8846 seems likely.
EMA’s (12 & 26): bullish crossover on 1h, 2h, and 3h. 4h is crossing right now.
MA crossovers: Bullish crossover on 30 minute. Bearish everywhere else.
FIB’s: 0.236 at $416 and .382 at $642
Candlestick analysis: Monthly doji
Ichimoku Cloud: weekly cloud is acting as support. 3d c clamp, and fullish bearish. Tenkan resistance on daily.
TD Sequential: Green 2 trading above a green 1 on the daily. Red 2 on 3d after a 2 candle correction. Weekly red 8. Green 1 on the monthly if we close above $388
Visible Range: Resistance from $450 - $494.
50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): 50: -12% 200: -54.22%
Bollinger Bands: M: MA is at $375 W: MA is at $578 3d: MA at $522 1d: MA is currently apart of the resistance cluster at $450
Trendline: Hyperwave (green) and triangle (yellow) showing confluence
Daily Trend: bullish over last 17 hours.
Fractals: DOWN - $419 UP - $494
On Balance Volume: Bull div on daily.
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI - 44 Stoch - Crossing at 26

Conclusion: Longing at this price is attractive. Stop at $399 and target at $647 provides a 5:1 risk:reward ratio. I will be entering into this position in thirds. Green 2 above green 1 on the daily is the first indication to enter. Breaking through $455 is the second ientry and breaking the down trend line (red) will be the third and final entry. ETHUSDSHORTS pulling back from ATH levels is a great confirmation.

Comment:

7/16

Patterns: Bouncing off bottom of triangle, and recently broke out of down trend.
Horizontal support and resistance:
ETHUSDSHORTS: Have fallen by 17.44% over the past 10 hours while shorts on BTC have remained relatively flat.
12 & 26 EMA’s(calculate % difference): 12: +5.5% 26: +1.91% Posturing for bullish crossover on daily. Getting ready to cross on 12 hour.
MA crossovers: Getting ready to make bullish crossover on 1h, bearish everywhere else.
FIB’s: 0.236 at $416 and 0.382 at $642
Candlestick analysis: Potential hanging man the 12h. Waiting for euphoria wick to indicate this rally has come to an end. 1d, 3d and weekly still look bullish af.
Ichimoku Cloud: Trading above $485 would be kumo breakout on the weekly. C clamp on 3d with kijun at $792. C clamp on daily with kijun at $565. Bottom of bearish cloud is at $484 on 12h.
TD Sequential: Green 3 on the daily. Green 1 on 3d. Green 1 on weekly. Major support at $388 and major resistance at $538
Visible Range: Shows resistance tapering off after $491
50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): 50: -5.02% 200: -44.97%
BTC Price Spreadsheet: Back above 200 MA on 4 hour chart for the first time since 5/21. About ready to make a bullish cross on 1h. All other times are bearish. 50 day MA will be waiting at $500.
Bollinger Bands: D: Bands are just starting to angle upward. Top band is at $493. 3d: MA is at $521 and top band is at $663. W: MA is at $556 and top band is at $790
Trendline: Recently broke down trendline. Found support at the bottom of the triangle and on top of the green trendline that connects 7/16/17 to 7/13/18.
Daily Trend: Bullish since 7/14
Fractals: DOWN $420 | UP $496
On Balance Volume: Bull div in the daily. OBV already broke through the resistance that corresponds with the $500 price level.
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI back above 50. Stoch at 45. Half of the MA’s are showing buy signals after being a ‘sell’ across the board.

“As for me, I have no desire to carry the football from end zone to end zone. Just give me the territory between the 20 yard lines.” @PeterBrandt

Yard line of trend:

Target: $647
Start: $430
Field: $217 in length
Current Price: $476
Yardline: 21

Conclusion: Feeling good about this position. Will be watching price action at $500 resistance closely. Should be fully entered under $475. If not then there is still time to build a position. Crossovers on the 12 & 26 EMA’s and/or the 50 and 200 MA’s could provide the necessary confirmations to enter. The risk:reward is not as favorable so it could be a good idea to scale down on the position size.

Comment:

Do not like how the current daily candle has fully retraced to below yesterday’s open. Also do not like how overbought BTC is, am expecting it to pull back and drag ETH down with it. Stop loss orders have been moved to break even ($469)

Trade closed: stop reached:

Stop was triggered on this position at breakeven. Head and shoulders + bear flag on the 1 hour make me feel very glad that I got out.