ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: New Highs And New Supports.

ETHUSD Update: New highs provide for a clearer wave count, new levels to watch for and further strength but there is also an increased risk.

Finally a decisive breakout to a the 368 high and almost reaching my previously written about 374 target. Higher highs obviously signal strength and that support levels are more likely to hold on any subsequent retracements, Many traders have asked me about buying back into this market at lower levels, but I could not justify the risk and I still can't. For those of you who could, nice trade so far.

This breakout generates new structure to consider going forward. In terms of new support levels, 316 (.618 of current bullish move), 336 (.382 of current bullish move) and 349 (inversion) are the new levels I will be watching for a retrace to eventually when this market pulls back. The next resistance is the 374 level followed by 392. Which are structural resistances that date back to the market highs put in on 6/12 and 6/18 of this year. 392 is also worth noting because it is a 1.618 extension that is relative to Wave 1 of this current 5 wave structure that we are in. Extensions tend to be levels where waves complete.

On that note, the current breakout allows for new labeling of the recent price action structure. Subdegree Wave 3 now has 5 subwaves and is nearing completion. Can it extend to reach the 392 resistance? Sure. The problem is when I see 5 wave structures, there is an increased chance for a market correction. I have been very cautious as this market was inching higher, and the higher it goes without any retracement, the more cautious and conservative I get when it comes to taking any new positions.

In terms of retrace, IF the market pulls back to 350 or 336, I will consider a position depending on the price action at the time. Right now, this is generally a slow up market and there is really no sign of immediate weakness. The reason why I call this market risky is because I do not buy highs, especially after being able to count a 5 wave structure. I also won't buy at any random price just because I "feel" like is going higher. That is impulsive behavior that I rid myself of years ago. The market is a harsh teacher.

In summary, the upside break out is certainly a bullish sign and implies further strength. It also generates an updated wave count and support structures that provide levels to consider in the near future. At the moment, I cannot justify the risks involved with buying at these prices and prefer to stick to my plan which is to adjust my levels to watch for and wait. If the market continues to the 374 and 392 resistance levels without me, I am fine with that. Remember it is all about the risk you are willing to take and my trading plan is structured to direct me to buy lows, not highs. You don't have to follow my plan, you need to have one of your own and I hope my analysis helps you within that context.

Comments and questions welcome.