4xForecaster

Wedge & Predictive/Forecast Model Interplay | $EUR $AUD #Forex

FX:EURAUD   Euro / Australian Dollar
Friends,

A very quick note here highlighting both a long-term pattern development found in a wedge , which I have overlaid over the results of my predictive/forecasting model, whose targets are defined as:

1 - TG-1 = 1.43744 - 04 JUN 14

and

2 - TG-Lo = 1.40384 - 04 JUN 14.

With ECB decisions coming up tomorrow (05 JUN 2014), the Forex community may or may not have priced the outcome already - I personally tend to think that institutional traders would tend to position price to dampen losses against any surprise while maximizing on strategic positions. In the case of this pattern, I would say that dwelling at the upper portion of the pattern (i.e.: keeping price close to the upper border) does just that: It positions price against any unlikely upward surprise (i.e.: current rate is at 0.25%, while forecast/consensus is at 0.10%, thus likely to pull $EUR downwards) - But then again, this is all guess work, and this is the last thing I need. Instead, I like solid, reliable data for my forecast.


PATTERN ANALYSIS:

The pattern that stands in the background can be defined as either a Bearish Cypher or Bearish Shark . You will see that the least probable of the forecast level (i.e.: TG-1= 1.43744 - 04 JUN 14) comes into perfect alignment with what would complete as a Cypher , such that Points XA would project at 0.786-Fib ~ 1.43744, whereas a Shark would seek a deeper point of completion, which is not quite well aligned with the lower TG-Lo = 1.40384, considering that a Bullish Shark would seek 1.131 x zero-A position as its outer most completion at Point-C (as you may recall, the Shark is only a "quasi-pattern", incomplete by a one-off system, which starts its count at Point-zero, then moves on to complete at Point-C. This is so because the Shark pattern is the introducing feature of the 5-0 pattern, which completes at 50% of the recent Shark B-C impulse - Consult Scott Carney's Harmonic Trading books and website for more information on this).

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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10 JUN 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$EURAUD moves toward forecast targets on the back of $AUDUSD strengthening: via @tradingview | $AUD $EUR $USD #Forex"



Price action rolls along as per forecast. As of this hour, $AUDUSD has gained significant strength, powering bears beyond recent support and towards targets - Predictive analysis and forecasting remain intact and in force.

David Alcindor
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