4xForecaster

Wedge & Predictive/Forecast Model Interplay | $EUR $AUD #Forex

FX:EURAUD   Euro Fx/Australian Dollar
Friends,

A very quick note here highlighting both a long-term pattern development found in a wedge , which I have overlaid over the results of my predictive/forecasting model, whose targets are defined as:

1 - TG-1 = 1.43744 - 04 JUN 14

and

2 - TG-Lo = 1.40384 - 04 JUN 14.

With ECB decisions coming up tomorrow (05 JUN 2014), the Forex community may or may not have priced the outcome already - I personally tend to think that institutional traders would tend to position price to dampen losses against any surprise while maximizing on strategic positions. In the case of this pattern, I would say that dwelling at the upper portion of the pattern (i.e.: keeping price close to the upper border) does just that: It positions price against any unlikely upward surprise (i.e.: current rate is at 0.25%, while forecast/consensus is at 0.10%, thus likely to pull $EUR downwards) - But then again, this is all guess work, and this is the last thing I need. Instead, I like solid, reliable data for my forecast.


PATTERN ANALYSIS:

The pattern that stands in the background can be defined as either a Bearish Cypher or Bearish Shark . You will see that the least probable of the forecast level (i.e.: TG-1= 1.43744 - 04 JUN 14) comes into perfect alignment with what would complete as a Cypher , such that Points XA would project at 0.786-Fib ~ 1.43744, whereas a Shark would seek a deeper point of completion, which is not quite well aligned with the lower TG-Lo = 1.40384, considering that a Bullish Shark would seek 1.131 x zero-A position as its outer most completion at Point-C (as you may recall, the Shark is only a "quasi-pattern", incomplete by a one-off system, which starts its count at Point-zero, then moves on to complete at Point-C. This is so because the Shark pattern is the introducing feature of the 5-0 pattern, which completes at 50% of the recent Shark B-C impulse - Consult Scott Carney's Harmonic Trading books and website for more information on this).

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


------------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
------------------
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
10 JUN 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$EURAUD moves toward forecast targets on the back of $AUDUSD strengthening:
snapshot
via @tradingview | $AUD $EUR $USD #Forex"

snapshot


Price action rolls along as per forecast. As of this hour, $AUDUSD has gained significant strength, powering bears beyond recent support and towards targets - Predictive analysis and forecasting remain intact and in force.

David Alcindor
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
Deutschland
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
Malaysia
日本
한국
简体
繁體
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Priority Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out