IvanLabrie
Short

EURCAD: Potential long term short

FX:EURCAD   Euro Fx/Canadian Dollar
EURCAD             is displaying a potential topping pattern at the top of the recent range, right against a long term mode, the price zone with the most activity in the chart since 1994.
The previous reaction to such a strong historical resistance level was seen in the chart I posted before, where I reccomended buying against support for a potentially very large move to the upside (which resulted in a home run trade, with enough returns for a year).

This is a terrific opportunity to get short the Euro             , and long the Canadian, something which I think is perfectly aligned with the current fundamental landscape.
I'll enter with 3 positions, and attempt to ride the downtrend all the way down, booking partial profits on short term selling opportunities, while keeping the core position running, and I'd reccomend you do the same.
I favor an ATR based stop loss, against key levels. If interested in getting specific management cues and further add on opportunities, were this trend to reverse as depicted on my quarterly chart, contact me privately.
See my profile for details.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
Comment:
snapshot
Trade active: We're in with a profitable trade.
Good luck!
Comment: Terrific, I hope everyone caught this short.
Comment: Flat for now, will rejoin soon.
Comment: Reshorted, we have a tight stop, but fairly safe.
Aiming for retest of the lows before the rally or lower.
Comment: Timing was spot on, could have held the top entry, oh well.
I hope everyone's in. If not in and don't want to miss out, like when I posted 2 hours ago, use a wide ATR stop loss (3 atr will never get you stopped if you're right)
Comment: Adding to shorts, fade any rallies, sell new lows, just sell.
Comment: Fading today's rally was a good idea. On Monday we have a new mode to short against, lower.
This means the downtrend is very strong.
Comment: Let this one run for eternity...aiming below 1.46 is very realistic.
Comment: Reshorted, and adding on a break of support.
Comment: A retracement in EURUSD is likely, I expect some consolidation or retrace here as well.
Will be ideal to add to or rejoin this trend.
Trade active: I'm long with a wide stop/small position.
Trade closed manually
Ivan

Wonder if you can shed some light on this -

The Bank of Canada is the most likely of the major central banks to opt for negative rates this year or next, Marc Chandler, the head of foreign exchange markets strategy at BBH, told CNBC on Friday.

"I am not saying the Bank of Canada will, but that is the most likely candidate of those that are not there yet… I do not see this as anything but very low risk in the U.S.," he said.
(source : CNBC)

After Japan followed with the -ve interest rate, it caused the Nikkei to plunge more than 1000 points only to return back to the market thereafter shortly.

The confusion and euphoria is also impacting the USDJPY pair.

If -ve interest rate does happen to Canada, how would it play out against yen ?

Your thoughts is much appreciated. Thanks
+1 Reply
Hi, I wouldn't know, the market can react in unexpected ways like it did with the yen.
Everyone expected uptrend continuation in usdjpy, yet it took a nose dive.
My analysis tells me that the CAD will see continued strength for a long time.
Reply
I already in. thanks !
+1 Reply
I caught this one thanks to you ivan :)
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO CoreyInvesFB
Cool, monitor price action, might be good to cover partially, since we might see a retracement.
+1 Reply
CoreyInvesFB IvanLabrie
What a ride today! :)
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO CoreyInvesFB
It was the OPEC meeting's result.
The pair remains bearish since eurusd is in worse shape than usdcad in the long run.
We just have to be patient to catch the profitable trending legs on the way down.
If I'm right, there'll be plenty of chances!
Cheers.
+1 Reply
AhmetAlperOzen IvanLabrie
what do you think about EURUSD ?
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO AhmetAlperOzen
I posted a chart, it should be starting a large decline back to the uptrend mode in the weekly 1.0985-1.107 zone.
If it crosses below that it'll fall below parity quickly.
It could have one more bounce up, the daily charts still look bullish, in the intermediate term.
Recently, fundamentals have been favoring a dollar selloff, and it's spreading to emerging markets' currencies, which were being sold heavily for the dollar before.
With this twist, and the lack of rate hikes until December, it's possible to see sideways or even upside movement in eurusd.
In a relative strength basis though, it's one of the weakest currencies, along with the dollar right now.
+1 Reply
Super ! Thank you very much...
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO AhmetAlperOzen
Welcome, hang in there ;)
Reply
the sam view

EURCAD retest a Resistance
Reply
"Let this run for eternity"...ha! That was good. Nice trade!
Reply
;)

It can keep going. I keep shorting it.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
Enter, exit when it's about to retrace, reenter again when ripe. You risk part of your profit every time, no need to lose unrealized profit by waiting out the pullback, maybe that pullback is a trend reversal and you're toast.
At least that's how I approach these longer term moves. Trying to bank and reenter often.
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out