Mihai_Iacob

A glance into CHF crosses (The ultimate safe heaven)

Short
FX:EURCHF   Euro / Swiss Franc
Hi traders, in this post let's take a look into the CHF crosses which not only I think presents good trading opportunities, but also will give us a " feeling" about the risk in the markets at this moment.

EurChf:

As you can see in the main chart (weekly) EurChf is in a clear downtrend since the beginning of the 2007-2008 financial crisis and in the past 7 years, the pair has formed a pattern that resembles an H&S . More importantly though is that the pair is trading at this moment exactly in a strong support above 1 very important figure(We don't care about 3% difference looking at a longer TF)

Going to daily


Here we can see that since March's top above 1.1, the pair has started to drop, and since September, this drop is accelerating, but more importantly, in the past 2 months, EurChf has broken under 3 important daily support levels.
The month of December is marked by consolidation with the pair trading in a tight range. However, last week can give us a clue, with the strong selling and reversal before the 1.05 figure.
In conclusion, I expect EurChf to continue its descent at the beginning of 2022 and to reach at least parity figure.

GbpChf:


Similar to EurChf , here also we have a multi-year downtrend, and going to the daily chart , we can see that the pair is accelerating down since late October also here.
December, in GbpChf's case, is marked by a flag, which can lead to continuation, and, very important in my opinion, the BoE rate rise did nothing but a spike up, strongly reversed, leaving a Pin Bar on our chart.
1..2150-1.22 is the support zone , and a break here could accelerate losses to the next important support under 1.17. Such a trade would have a 1:3 risk: reward ratio and, in my opinion, GbpChf needs to be on our watch list in the next weeks.

AudChf:


We can see something similar in AudChf , a pair very sensitive to risk... The pair is accelerating its loss in late October and we have a break under very important 0.67 support, with this break confirmed as genuine last week.
The next support for this pair is 0.64 zone, but once this is cleared, AudChf can spiral down to at least 0.6








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