Hello Traders!
Early rate hike priced in for the pound, that may not come as soon as expected. So we can see an overstretched position also if we see more vix upside along risk off sentiment that supports the trade as well.
Euro (EUR)
Fundamental Bias: Weak Bearish
Primary Driver:
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB
Rationale:
The ECB provided an overall balanced policy decision at their September meeting. They chose to slow the pace of asset purchases, explaining that the current levels of financial conditions allow them to buy assets under PEPP at 'moderately' slower pace compared to the pace of purchases seen in Q" and Q+. However, as expected, the bank made it vers clear that the move was not tapering it was merely a recalibration of purchases (when you plan to perform less QE that's technically tapering but who's counting).The bank raised their inflation projections for 2021, 2022 and 2023, and even though the 2021 projections were arquablynot as high as the markets were hoping for, the more important me-term projections still showed inflation moving to well below the banks 2% target to affirm the transitory view of recent price measures. All in all, the decision was broadly balanced and as a result failed to inspire any meaningful reaction in European assets. For this weeks upcoming meeting, the markets are not expecting any fresh changes as all eyes are on the December meeting.
Primary driver:
2. The country's economic developments
Rationale:
Earlier issues with vaccinations and lockdowns at the start of 2021 weighted on eu growth prospects, with growth differentials against the US an UK still quite wide, despite some of the recent some of the recent strong economic data. Despite the hit to growth, the recent activity data suggests the hit to the economy from recent lockdowns weren't as bad as feared. That alone isn't enough to change the current bearish outlook. Another factor to watch is the discussions among European states to allow the purchase of green bonds not to count against budget deficits. Such a decision could change the fiscal picture drastically and we would expect that to be a big positive for the EUR and European equities. However, in the short-term, EUR traders will be firmly fixing their eyes on the ECB, which is expected to be a bit of an uneventful meeting.
Primary driver:
3. Funding Characteristics
Rationale:
An interesting driver for the euro is its funding characteristic exhibited during risk off sentiment. AS a low yielder ( like jpy and CHF ), the European has been an interesting choice among the carry trades, especially during 2019 it was favoured against high yield EM currencies, and part of the big upside in the euro during the initial risk off scare in march 2020 was attributed to an unwind of large carry trades. recently we've seen the euro exhibit some resilience during jittery risk tones despite usd strength. As more central banks start normalising policy, the euro's attractiveness as a funding current ycould keep it pressure din the med term vs higher yielders. However, it could spark risk off upside if some of those trades unwind. That doesn't make our a safe haven, but as rates climb globally it can become more sensitive to risk.
Primary driver:
4. CFTC Analysis
Rationale:
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +6291 with a net non-commercial position of -12107. The stretched positioning for large speculators we noted the past few weeks have continued to ease, but net shorts are sizable for leveraged funds. Thus, we would not be interested in chasing the euro lower from here without seeing a more mean reversion first.
Great British Pound (GBP)
Fundamental Bias: Bullish
Primary driver:
1. Monetary policy outlook for the BOE
Rationale:
The SEP policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this course falls in line with our bullish bias for the pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right now. The bank did explain that they now see inflation above 4% by Q4 of this year, and the possibility of more sticky inflation was the key reasons why we saw a 7-2 QE vote split with Saunders and Ramsden both dissenting to cut purchases. However its important to note that the remaining 7 members still see inflation as transitory, and the fact that this expect CPI above 4% means any prints that don't come close to that poses downside risks. Furthermore, even though the bank said their expectations of modest tightening has strengthened. the admitted that lots of uncertainties remain.A big one of these is the labour market, where even though the number of furloughed staff have decreased, that decrease has materially slowed from august which poses more uncertainty for the labour market. Thus, even though our bias remains unchanged, and we see the bank lifting rates Q', we do think the over optimistic moves in the money markets poses sort term headwinds.
Primary driver:
2. The country's economic developments
Rationale:
The successful vaccination program that allowed the UK to open faster and sooner than peers provided a favourable environment for sterling and the strength of the economic recovery has meant solid growth differentials favouring GBP. However, a lot of these positives are arguably the same outperformance we saw earlier. With out above comments about money markets, it also means that there is now more risk to the downside surprises then was the case a few months ago.
Primary Driver:
3. Political developments
Rationale:
Even though a Brexit deal was reached last year, some issues like the Northern Ireland protocol remains, and with neither side willing to budge it seems like these issues. On Friday, the EU ramped up some political posturing with report that said they are mulling róterminating the BREXIT deal if the UK triggers Article 16. For now, these are just threads, but with rates markets still very aggressively priced any further escalation could increase the odds of seeing repricing downside in the GBP, so one to keep on the radar after Friday.
Primary Driver:
4. CFTC Analysis
Rationale
latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +13594 with a net non commercial position of + 1615. Sterling have been a very impressive rebound from recent lows as market s reacted positively to recent BOE comments which sparked additional downside in SONIA futures, which are now fully priced for 15-basis point hike in Q! and about three 25-basis point hikes by end 2022. Even though GBP has enjoyed upside on the tightening expectations, the reasons why markets are pricing ia steeper rate path is out of fear of inflation and not due to a more positive economic outlook, which as we highlighted above does pose headwind for the Pound in the weeks ahead if growth of inflation data surprise lower in the weeks ahead.
Have a great week!
Vitez
Early rate hike priced in for the pound, that may not come as soon as expected. So we can see an overstretched position also if we see more vix upside along risk off sentiment that supports the trade as well.
Euro (EUR)
Fundamental Bias: Weak Bearish
Primary Driver:
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB
Rationale:
The ECB provided an overall balanced policy decision at their September meeting. They chose to slow the pace of asset purchases, explaining that the current levels of financial conditions allow them to buy assets under PEPP at 'moderately' slower pace compared to the pace of purchases seen in Q" and Q+. However, as expected, the bank made it vers clear that the move was not tapering it was merely a recalibration of purchases (when you plan to perform less QE that's technically tapering but who's counting).The bank raised their inflation projections for 2021, 2022 and 2023, and even though the 2021 projections were arquablynot as high as the markets were hoping for, the more important me-term projections still showed inflation moving to well below the banks 2% target to affirm the transitory view of recent price measures. All in all, the decision was broadly balanced and as a result failed to inspire any meaningful reaction in European assets. For this weeks upcoming meeting, the markets are not expecting any fresh changes as all eyes are on the December meeting.
Primary driver:
2. The country's economic developments
Rationale:
Earlier issues with vaccinations and lockdowns at the start of 2021 weighted on eu growth prospects, with growth differentials against the US an UK still quite wide, despite some of the recent some of the recent strong economic data. Despite the hit to growth, the recent activity data suggests the hit to the economy from recent lockdowns weren't as bad as feared. That alone isn't enough to change the current bearish outlook. Another factor to watch is the discussions among European states to allow the purchase of green bonds not to count against budget deficits. Such a decision could change the fiscal picture drastically and we would expect that to be a big positive for the EUR and European equities. However, in the short-term, EUR traders will be firmly fixing their eyes on the ECB, which is expected to be a bit of an uneventful meeting.
Primary driver:
3. Funding Characteristics
Rationale:
An interesting driver for the euro is its funding characteristic exhibited during risk off sentiment. AS a low yielder ( like jpy and CHF ), the European has been an interesting choice among the carry trades, especially during 2019 it was favoured against high yield EM currencies, and part of the big upside in the euro during the initial risk off scare in march 2020 was attributed to an unwind of large carry trades. recently we've seen the euro exhibit some resilience during jittery risk tones despite usd strength. As more central banks start normalising policy, the euro's attractiveness as a funding current ycould keep it pressure din the med term vs higher yielders. However, it could spark risk off upside if some of those trades unwind. That doesn't make our a safe haven, but as rates climb globally it can become more sensitive to risk.
Primary driver:
4. CFTC Analysis
Rationale:
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +6291 with a net non-commercial position of -12107. The stretched positioning for large speculators we noted the past few weeks have continued to ease, but net shorts are sizable for leveraged funds. Thus, we would not be interested in chasing the euro lower from here without seeing a more mean reversion first.
Great British Pound (GBP)
Fundamental Bias: Bullish
Primary driver:
1. Monetary policy outlook for the BOE
Rationale:
The SEP policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this course falls in line with our bullish bias for the pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right now. The bank did explain that they now see inflation above 4% by Q4 of this year, and the possibility of more sticky inflation was the key reasons why we saw a 7-2 QE vote split with Saunders and Ramsden both dissenting to cut purchases. However its important to note that the remaining 7 members still see inflation as transitory, and the fact that this expect CPI above 4% means any prints that don't come close to that poses downside risks. Furthermore, even though the bank said their expectations of modest tightening has strengthened. the admitted that lots of uncertainties remain.A big one of these is the labour market, where even though the number of furloughed staff have decreased, that decrease has materially slowed from august which poses more uncertainty for the labour market. Thus, even though our bias remains unchanged, and we see the bank lifting rates Q', we do think the over optimistic moves in the money markets poses sort term headwinds.
Primary driver:
2. The country's economic developments
Rationale:
The successful vaccination program that allowed the UK to open faster and sooner than peers provided a favourable environment for sterling and the strength of the economic recovery has meant solid growth differentials favouring GBP. However, a lot of these positives are arguably the same outperformance we saw earlier. With out above comments about money markets, it also means that there is now more risk to the downside surprises then was the case a few months ago.
Primary Driver:
3. Political developments
Rationale:
Even though a Brexit deal was reached last year, some issues like the Northern Ireland protocol remains, and with neither side willing to budge it seems like these issues. On Friday, the EU ramped up some political posturing with report that said they are mulling róterminating the BREXIT deal if the UK triggers Article 16. For now, these are just threads, but with rates markets still very aggressively priced any further escalation could increase the odds of seeing repricing downside in the GBP, so one to keep on the radar after Friday.
Primary Driver:
4. CFTC Analysis
Rationale
latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +13594 with a net non commercial position of + 1615. Sterling have been a very impressive rebound from recent lows as market s reacted positively to recent BOE comments which sparked additional downside in SONIA futures, which are now fully priced for 15-basis point hike in Q! and about three 25-basis point hikes by end 2022. Even though GBP has enjoyed upside on the tightening expectations, the reasons why markets are pricing ia steeper rate path is out of fear of inflation and not due to a more positive economic outlook, which as we highlighted above does pose headwind for the Pound in the weeks ahead if growth of inflation data surprise lower in the weeks ahead.
Have a great week!
Vitez