as for the probabilities, scenario 1 has a higher probability than scenario 2 simply because consolidation and bouncing from levels is a more common (70%) phenomena than trending and breaking (30%). I mark this idea as neutral for you to keep your mind open to both possibilities.
'I only use what I have tested. Using Daily for me equal to gambling because I don't know the expectancy of my methods applied to Daily. So why should I use it? I never traded it, I never tested it.'