After reaching the 132.00 mark early on Wednesday, bears prevailed and send the pair for a decline down to the 131.20. As apparent on the chart, the 55-hour SMA managed to hinder the pair both from the down– and up-side.
This level could be breached as traders may take advantage of the mitigated political tensions that is usually an advantage to the Yen. Thus, in case this level is breached, the pair is set to test the weekly R2 at 131.80 or even the 2017 high at 132.00.
Even though no specific trend is guiding the pair, slightly bullish technical indicators might support the above scenario. However, as technical oscillators did no reach the oversold territory, the Euro might in fact turn back south at any moment and approach the bottom channel boundary, reinforced by the 200-hour SMA circa 130.60.
This level could be breached as traders may take advantage of the mitigated political tensions that is usually an advantage to the Yen. Thus, in case this level is breached, the pair is set to test the weekly R2 at 131.80 or even the 2017 high at 132.00.
Even though no specific trend is guiding the pair, slightly bullish technical indicators might support the above scenario. However, as technical oscillators did no reach the oversold territory, the Euro might in fact turn back south at any moment and approach the bottom channel boundary, reinforced by the 200-hour SMA circa 130.60.
Trade closed: stop reached:
After reaching the psychological level of 133.00 on Friday, it was expected that the Euro would weaken against the Yen and reach for the 55-hour SMA. However, the Euro managed to find strength once more and reach a two-year high at 133.07 by mid-Monday.
Converging technical indicators signal that the expected reversal should begin in the nearest time—most probably during the following trading hours. Even though some short-term appreciation might still occur, this movement up is unlikely to be sustainable, thus pressuring the rate for a decline.
The nearest support is set by the monthly R1 at 132.61; however, being located nearby might not limit further losses. Thus, the downside target could be once again set near the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 132.00.
After reaching the psychological level of 133.00 on Friday, it was expected that the Euro would weaken against the Yen and reach for the 55-hour SMA. However, the Euro managed to find strength once more and reach a two-year high at 133.07 by mid-Monday.
Converging technical indicators signal that the expected reversal should begin in the nearest time—most probably during the following trading hours. Even though some short-term appreciation might still occur, this movement up is unlikely to be sustainable, thus pressuring the rate for a decline.
The nearest support is set by the monthly R1 at 132.61; however, being located nearby might not limit further losses. Thus, the downside target could be once again set near the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 132.00.
Comment:
Despite being driven by a solid upside momentum for the last two trading days, the Euro managed to push past the two-year high at 133.30 towards the 134.00 area. As a result, the upper boundary of the ascending channel was shifted north to include the pair’s latest peak.
Even though technical indicators signalled to a possible reversal on Monday, the Euro succeeded at maintaining them in a relatively stable position. Meanwhile, trend indicators demonstrate the weakening of the bullish up-trend.
This suggests that the expected reversal might finally occur in this session, as doubts about the rate’s ability to push above this two-and-a-half year peak is increasing. The nearest support is set by the 55-hour SMA, while the 100-hour SMA located near the bottom channel boundary could provide a stronger barrier.
Despite being driven by a solid upside momentum for the last two trading days, the Euro managed to push past the two-year high at 133.30 towards the 134.00 area. As a result, the upper boundary of the ascending channel was shifted north to include the pair’s latest peak.
Even though technical indicators signalled to a possible reversal on Monday, the Euro succeeded at maintaining them in a relatively stable position. Meanwhile, trend indicators demonstrate the weakening of the bullish up-trend.
This suggests that the expected reversal might finally occur in this session, as doubts about the rate’s ability to push above this two-and-a-half year peak is increasing. The nearest support is set by the 55-hour SMA, while the 100-hour SMA located near the bottom channel boundary could provide a stronger barrier.
Comment:
The common European currency has maintained a relatively stable position against the US Dollar during the last 24 hours, lingering slightly below the two-year high at 134.01. Even though the Euro did not reverse south, it has nevertheless begun its path towards the lower channel boundary.
The bullish trend has likewise lost strength, indicating that a re-test of the given line might eventually result in a breakout southwards. Meanwhile, the rate still faces the 55– and 100-hour SMAs along the way.
It is likely that the pair hinders near the former, as bulls might try to preserve their position above this moving average. The failure to break it on the first attempt should force the rate sideways. The next significant support is the aforementioned 100-hour SMA.
The common European currency has maintained a relatively stable position against the US Dollar during the last 24 hours, lingering slightly below the two-year high at 134.01. Even though the Euro did not reverse south, it has nevertheless begun its path towards the lower channel boundary.
The bullish trend has likewise lost strength, indicating that a re-test of the given line might eventually result in a breakout southwards. Meanwhile, the rate still faces the 55– and 100-hour SMAs along the way.
It is likely that the pair hinders near the former, as bulls might try to preserve their position above this moving average. The failure to break it on the first attempt should force the rate sideways. The next significant support is the aforementioned 100-hour SMA.
Comment:
EUR/JPY remained relatively stable on Wednesday, fluctuating near the 55-hour SMA since mid-session. This situation changed swiftly when the Euro strongly appreciated against the Yen early in the morning.
It seems that this hourly jump was caused by remarks of the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda starting at 0630GMT. As a result, the Euro re-tested the 134.06 mark once again and has since lingered slightly below the given level.
The pair’s movement during the last three trading sessions demonstrate that the pair has struggled to pass the two-year high, but nevertheless has not fallen either. It is possible that the Euro pushes up to the monthly R2 at 134.22; however, any other advances should not be expected. Instead, the rate could approach the 100-hour SMA near 133.20.
EUR/JPY remained relatively stable on Wednesday, fluctuating near the 55-hour SMA since mid-session. This situation changed swiftly when the Euro strongly appreciated against the Yen early in the morning.
It seems that this hourly jump was caused by remarks of the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda starting at 0630GMT. As a result, the Euro re-tested the 134.06 mark once again and has since lingered slightly below the given level.
The pair’s movement during the last three trading sessions demonstrate that the pair has struggled to pass the two-year high, but nevertheless has not fallen either. It is possible that the Euro pushes up to the monthly R2 at 134.22; however, any other advances should not be expected. Instead, the rate could approach the 100-hour SMA near 133.20.
Comment:
Despite failing to surpass 134.08 on four separate occasions, EUR/JPY managed to breach this mark mid-Thursday and set a new yearly high. The rate made two more leaps and eventually returned at the 134.34 mark.
By and large, the Euro still continues to trade in a medium-term channel that has confined the pair since early September. Although it was expected that the rate will fall after reaching the upper channel boundary, the Euro entered a consolidation phase. This movement sideways has resulted in the formation of a channel up that is guiding the pair towards the bottom line of the senior channel.
For the reason that technical indicators point to no changes in the current direction, it is likely that the junior pattern prevails until the 133.70 is reached on Monday.
Despite failing to surpass 134.08 on four separate occasions, EUR/JPY managed to breach this mark mid-Thursday and set a new yearly high. The rate made two more leaps and eventually returned at the 134.34 mark.
By and large, the Euro still continues to trade in a medium-term channel that has confined the pair since early September. Although it was expected that the rate will fall after reaching the upper channel boundary, the Euro entered a consolidation phase. This movement sideways has resulted in the formation of a channel up that is guiding the pair towards the bottom line of the senior channel.
For the reason that technical indicators point to no changes in the current direction, it is likely that the junior pattern prevails until the 133.70 is reached on Monday.
Comment:
During the second half of Friday’s session, the Euro was falling gradually against the Yen, thus closing the day at the 100-hour SMA. The rate continued to move towards the lower channel boundary until the given line was breached on Monday morning.
The gains earned in the first four hours of this session was erased by mid-day when the rate tested the 200-hour SMA at 133.00. As apparent on the chart, the rate has formed a minor descending channel, thus moving away from the 2016/2017 high at 134.35.
Technical indicators signal that the rate is likely to reverse near the 133.00 area and remain relatively stable until the upper boundary of the junior channel in the 133.20/50 territory is reached. Nevertheless, the ECB President Draghi’s speech at 1300GMT could distort the market.
During the second half of Friday’s session, the Euro was falling gradually against the Yen, thus closing the day at the 100-hour SMA. The rate continued to move towards the lower channel boundary until the given line was breached on Monday morning.
The gains earned in the first four hours of this session was erased by mid-day when the rate tested the 200-hour SMA at 133.00. As apparent on the chart, the rate has formed a minor descending channel, thus moving away from the 2016/2017 high at 134.35.
Technical indicators signal that the rate is likely to reverse near the 133.00 area and remain relatively stable until the upper boundary of the junior channel in the 133.20/50 territory is reached. Nevertheless, the ECB President Draghi’s speech at 1300GMT could distort the market.
Comment:
Contrary to expectations, the common European currency remained stable during EBC President Draghi’s speech at 1300GMT on Monday. The subsequent movement, however, was a three-hour plunge down to the 132.15 mark. Thus, the rate dashed through the 200-hour SMA and the lower boundary of a minor channel.
Despite slight recovery late on Monday, bears continued their selling spree until mid-today. The massive one-and-a-half-day plunge set technical indicators in the strongly bearish territory. Thus, it is likely that the rate tries to recover some losses.
The Euro could still test the weekly S1 at 131.74, but eventually reverse to the upside. The closest major resistance is set by the monthly R1, while the bottom channel boundary in the 132.50/80 area is a closer distance.
Contrary to expectations, the common European currency remained stable during EBC President Draghi’s speech at 1300GMT on Monday. The subsequent movement, however, was a three-hour plunge down to the 132.15 mark. Thus, the rate dashed through the 200-hour SMA and the lower boundary of a minor channel.
Despite slight recovery late on Monday, bears continued their selling spree until mid-today. The massive one-and-a-half-day plunge set technical indicators in the strongly bearish territory. Thus, it is likely that the rate tries to recover some losses.
The Euro could still test the weekly S1 at 131.74, but eventually reverse to the upside. The closest major resistance is set by the monthly R1, while the bottom channel boundary in the 132.50/80 area is a closer distance.
Geopolitical tensions involving North Korea and Japan have weighted heavily on the Yen, as risks-averse investors were taking their money out of this safe-haven currency.
The strong appreciation of the Euro that started early in this session resembles other major currencies which have substantially increased in value against the Yen since the missile test. Markets started to react started already late on Thursday, as apparent from the highly volatile hourly candle at 22:00GMT. As a result, the previously-drawn ascending channel was breached, requiring to shift its borders to the upside.
Even though technical indicators show a solid up-trend, it is more likely that the Euro allays and rebounds within the remaining trading hours, setting the 55-hour SMA circa 131.50 as the ultimate downside target.