DavidBelleFX
Short

EURJPY MONTHLY

FX_IDC:EURJPY   EURO / YEN
Previous chart didnt upload the correct part.

This is a very exciting chart because we have great technical and fundamental confluence.

Firstly, as we know, patterns that occur on the monthly timeframes certainly have more strength than those on the lower timeframes.
This head and shoulders pattern, therefore, could be seen as a massive opportunity to look for trades to the downside. If we take a look at the red box, that is quite a large inefficiency in which we would be looking to capitalise on with short positions. Some may be worried about the spike higher up at the left shoulder. In my opinion, this was a stop raid and a short accumulation period (relatively) for the sharp move downwards from September 1998 til November 2000, due to the amount of time it spent at the 155.00-160.00 level.
Fundamentally, Yen is looking extremely strong, with another recent safe haven bid having been made. I do not believe we have seen the last of the correction in the indices as of yet, which would give further strength to the idea of Yen strengthening. What's more, China's woes have wreaked havoc on the commodity markets, which adds further fuel to Yen's fire. Specifically speaking of EURJPY             here, Draghi's press conference last week is still being digested by the market. His cutting of inflation expectations and therefore murmurings of further QE             will cause the EUR0.21% to weaken over the coming months. In addition, we have seen a change of -13.17% in the yield on the Eurobond year to date. A flattening is occuring once again, following the same pattern that occurred with the Euro0.21% weakness throughout 2014. This gives a further piece of fundamental confluence.
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Brokers I use:
ThinkMarkets: http://bit.ly/2guPzVn

GKFX: http://bit.ly/2gyUF0E

London Capital Group: http://bit.ly/2fETttv (also offer Vanilla Options)




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