EURNZD
Previous Month : Bearish
Previous Week : Bullish
Daily : Bullish
- EURNZD still ranging between 1.6700 / 1.6560 after creating low at 1.6320 triggered by Interest Rate Decision and retraced back the whole down move. The range high is contained below the daily support at 1.666x with rejection to hold above 1.6700.
- Looking for either support formation above 1.6700 to trigger Long positions or resistance formation below 1.6570 to trigger shorts. Also, current range trades could be played till we break this range 1.6700/1.6560. So, I may look to Short on 4H Res formation below 1.6700 and Long on Solid 4H formation above 1.6560.
- The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD to continue bearish momentum.
- Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken till end March, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts.
- So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; I'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid support formation above 1.7020 level.
- Important news for NZD this week on Thursday GDP and Wednesday Rate Decision which will move the NZD.
Week Trade Plan Daily Chart:
Daily Levels Daily Chart:
Comment:
19 March - EURNZD Short = L -9
Based on Resistance formation and 6640 and rejection all week from that level, i waited for HTF confirmation (4H closed bearish) and waited for resistance formation after the 4H close which formed below 6640 t 6620.
30m candle closed below the previous confirming bearish momentum.
I went short at 6611 with TP1 at 6585 and TP2 at 6570.
Trade went in profits and tested 6600 and bounced from there, closing 30m bullish and 1H indecision.
Closed the whole trade at 6620 at -9 as 4H turned bullish again and LTF are creating support.
Entry 30m Chart:
Exit 30m Chart:
Based on Resistance formation and 6640 and rejection all week from that level, i waited for HTF confirmation (4H closed bearish) and waited for resistance formation after the 4H close which formed below 6640 t 6620.
30m candle closed below the previous confirming bearish momentum.
I went short at 6611 with TP1 at 6585 and TP2 at 6570.
Trade went in profits and tested 6600 and bounced from there, closing 30m bullish and 1H indecision.
Closed the whole trade at 6620 at -9 as 4H turned bullish again and LTF are creating support.
Entry 30m Chart:
Exit 30m Chart:
Based on today bearish momentum, i was looking for shorts and seems i missed the early trades as it happened mainly in Asia.
Waited for retracement after creating new low at 1.6545 to create a resistance.
I was looking for Resistance formation below 6600 and 30m showed a solid confirmation.
I entered after the 30m solid confirmation, but 1H was not solid (not closing below the previous).
Price ranged and i didn't like creating support at my entry while not closing any candle above the previous.
Once we reached the high of the 30m bearish candle i exited my trade with L -10 as i didn't like it.
I know that Previous 4H was bullish, 1H not a solid confirmation .. so this is expected with no HTF solid confirmations.
Entry 30m Chart: