Kumowizard
Short

EURTRY - Sell in the range after Kumo retest

FX:EURTRY   Euro Fx/Turkish New Lira
47 2 1
Few days ago I have put out a short post on EURTRY             , pls             see link below. The more I look at it, the most I like to build some shorts. Technically we still have time to enter, but there are early signs of a possible drop down to the renge bottom soon. It is also very interesting that while for example the HUF             has already gained quite some power in last 5-6 days, TRY was rather moving the opposite side, up in its trading range. Both country's Central Banks are kind of... hmmm... how to say it in polite way... less credible (?), but while being long HUF             is zero carry, being long TRY is very positive carry. So at current levels if I have to chose, I wouldn't chase             the EURHUF             short, but I would rather go short slowly EURTRY             .

Daily: It's been moving sideaway, with a touch of bearish bias, as we have a slightly decreasing trend channel, with bit of lower lows and lower highs, but in fact it is still a horizontal range. At mom Price reached the Kumo, the first horizontal key resistance level , and almost the top of the decreasing channel. Ichimoku components are flat, so clearly there is no trend in place for now. When it is not trending, check Price action at key levels and use the oscillators to enter trades within the range. Based on daily I'd enter short for small ard this 2,8650 - 2,8800 area, adding more in case of a Price/Kijun sen bearish cross, so below 2,8550, especially if a Slow Stoch sell signal confirms.

Let's check 4 Hrs:
Ichimoku setup is getting from slight bullish to neutral now as Chikou Span hits Price candles. We have two important lines here: the horizontal resistance at 2,8800, which was touched and rejected by Price today and from the lower side a small bullish trendline , in line with the ver short term closer Key support at 2,8555 (note: this is in line with daily Kijun Sen, so it has a higher importance).
Basically this 2,8555 should be the level to enter shorts if Price braks below it. Next important level is 2,8350.
We can never rule out a possible move to the other side. If 2,88 breaks, then next upper resistance is 2,9150 - 2,9200. But if Price stays below 2,8800, then from the double top , we'll have a measured bearish tgt             to 2,7900!

Strategy: Small short here, adding +1 Trade Unit at 2,8850 stop if offered. Stop: 2,8850, Initial (first) tgt             2,7900. Risk/Reward: 2,2. And who knows, maybe finally it starts trending lower later, to second tgt: 2,70.

What makes this trade great is the swap you are going to get!
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Kumowizard PRO vlad.adrian
I also checked option pricing. For more OTM Calls they pay nice premium, while the less OTM Puts do not cost that much. So a zero cost bearish structure has a nice risk-reward too. I sold 1 Month 2,95 Call vs buying 2,84 Put today
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