- , but very overbought, price far above equilibrium level marked by Kijun Sen and future Senkou B
- Heikin Ashi is still , but we have a warning signal in haDelta, which after printing an extreme high around 0,20 (!) has stertd to build some negative divergence with its SMA3!
We have to watch weekly candle close, as the candle will still likely remain green, but the length of its wick and body will give further indication on Friday for next week(s)
- weekly supports and possible pull back tgts: 3,2670 / 3,1120
- setup, but now substantial higher high compared to last peak of 24/Aug candle. Kijun Sen may start to attract price back a bit.
- Heikin Ashi candle today signals start of consolidation or maybe a pull back: candle with inside body and both upper and lower wicks. Our quantification tool, haDelta gives more early warning signals: haDelta/SMA3 cross down again with third lower high, which means negative divergence and tension in the market.
- Profit taking and corrective wave can accelerate below 3,40-3,38
Please not that EURTRY has become extremely volatile! So may you enter a trade in any direction, take the increased in account when you decide about size of your position!
This is my basic rule No.1: position sizes always have to be calculated based on your trading capital, your amount risked/trade (stop loss), and the of the instrument (I use 20 days ATR)
My rule No 2.: Counter trend swing trades I do only with 0,5 risk unit (maximum 1 unit if momentum really works), while in trend direction I do minimum 1 trade unit, max up to 3-4 units leveraged.
Risk management and discipline are the alpha and omega of trading!
If we get the same signal and confirmation of pullback on USDTRY, there 2,92-2,95 zone will be possible to retest.