Hello Traders,
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of EURUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 50 - Dec 07
M > Price was respecting downward resistance trend-line however it broke trend-line to the upside, it will now act as support. Price broke monthly resistance last week and tested key supply zone. We expect a bearish correction however will be very cautious considering the bullish move shown by the pair.
W > Placing Fib of last major bullish impulse (June - Aug 2020) we can see that price approached and tested -0.272 Fib level and is facing a rejection. In case price continues with its bullish move we can expect it to test next level of -0.618 that also coincides with next monthly resistance.
D > Price approached twice in last two days to test -0.272 level and ended the week with rejection but rejection candle is not bearish engulfing hence strong enough to confirm a bearish reversal.
As per COT EUR saw addition of Long and closure of Short, slightly enhancing net positions further. Open interest in EUR has increased by about 27K positions since early November. EXY has been strengthening for past 3 weeks.
Institutions, since August, have been reducing their portfolio of Long and increasing Short positions, with about 60K Long positions closed and 18K short positions opened so far however for past 3 weeks they have been adding Long and closing Short.
4H > Price has definitely broken last HL to create a new LL but has also faced rejection at demand zone created by HH and HL. For a bearish confirmation price must break this demand zone to create a new LL.
Pair Correlation > EURUSD has positive correlation with GBPUSD, NZDUSD and AUDUSD and negative correlation with USDCHF and USDCAD.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of EURUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 50 - Dec 07
M > Price was respecting downward resistance trend-line however it broke trend-line to the upside, it will now act as support. Price broke monthly resistance last week and tested key supply zone. We expect a bearish correction however will be very cautious considering the bullish move shown by the pair.
W > Placing Fib of last major bullish impulse (June - Aug 2020) we can see that price approached and tested -0.272 Fib level and is facing a rejection. In case price continues with its bullish move we can expect it to test next level of -0.618 that also coincides with next monthly resistance.
D > Price approached twice in last two days to test -0.272 level and ended the week with rejection but rejection candle is not bearish engulfing hence strong enough to confirm a bearish reversal.
As per COT EUR saw addition of Long and closure of Short, slightly enhancing net positions further. Open interest in EUR has increased by about 27K positions since early November. EXY has been strengthening for past 3 weeks.
Institutions, since August, have been reducing their portfolio of Long and increasing Short positions, with about 60K Long positions closed and 18K short positions opened so far however for past 3 weeks they have been adding Long and closing Short.
4H > Price has definitely broken last HL to create a new LL but has also faced rejection at demand zone created by HH and HL. For a bearish confirmation price must break this demand zone to create a new LL.
Pair Correlation > EURUSD has positive correlation with GBPUSD, NZDUSD and AUDUSD and negative correlation with USDCHF and USDCAD.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX